615
FXUS64 KOHX 281732
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1132 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1117 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
- SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- HIGH RAIN CHANCES (80-90%) THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CARRY US INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF
FEBRUARY.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
IT'S A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE MID STATE! HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED
INTO THE AREA AND AS A RESULT, WE HAVE FULL SUN AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY. THIS WILL IN TURN LEAD TO ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
TONIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOW 30S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
BASICALLY THE SAME AS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES EVEN WARMER WITH SOME
SPOTS REACHING 60 DEGREES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE US THIS
WEEK AND BRING VERY HIGH RAIN CHANCES (90-100%) TO THE ENTIRE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. QPF VALUES HAVE SCALED BACK
JUST A TOUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE LATEST EURO
ENSEMBLES GIVE AN 80% CHANCE OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 1 INCH
PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND ONLY A 10-20% CHANCE OF
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 2" ANYWHERE IN MIDDLE TN. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
REMAIN VERY LOW. IF ANY INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO CREEP IN FRIDAY,
THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WITH THAT BEING SAID,
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AS WE ARE NOT IN A FAVORABLE
LOCATION WITH PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. PWAT VALUES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS EVENT, SO PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN
BE EXPECTED. IT WILL ALSO BE WINDY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 35 MPH. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND FULLY
COME TO AN END EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WE WILL DRY BACK OUT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CARRYING US INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 50S TO 60S DURING THE AFTERNOONS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
30S TO 40S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. SW WINDS WILL BE 5-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND
15 KTS. THE GUSTS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING. 5-10 KT WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE WEST DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 56 38 60 35 / 0 0 0 30
CLARKSVILLE 55 35 57 33 / 0 0 0 30
CROSSVILLE 49 34 53 31 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBIA 56 37 59 35 / 0 0 0 40
COOKEVILLE 50 34 54 33 / 0 0 0 10
JAMESTOWN 48 35 52 30 / 0 0 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 56 35 59 35 / 0 0 0 30
MURFREESBORO 56 35 58 33 / 0 0 0 30
WAVERLY 55 36 57 36 / 0 0 0 50
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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