313
FXUS64 KOHX 290206
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
806 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 803 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
- SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- HIGH RAIN CHANCES (80-90%) THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CARRY US INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF
FEBRUARY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 803 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
CLEAR SKIES ABOUND FOR MORE STARGAZING TONIGHT. TEMPS ARE RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT, SO IT MIGHT BE
A LITTLE MORE ENJOYABLE IF YOU'RE HEADED OUT. OTHERWISE, NOT MUCH
GOING ON AT UPDATE TIME. WE REACHED 60 DEGREES AT BNA TODAY AND
WITH A SIMILAR PATTERN IN PLACE LOOK FOR AT LEAST THAT TOMORROW,
IF NOT A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
IT'S A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE MID STATE! HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED
INTO THE AREA AND AS A RESULT, WE HAVE FULL SUN AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY. THIS WILL IN TURN LEAD TO ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
TONIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOW 30S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
BASICALLY THE SAME AS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES EVEN WARMER WITH SOME
SPOTS REACHING 60+ DEGREES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE US THIS
WEEK AND BRING VERY HIGH RAIN CHANCES (90-100%) TO THE ENTIRE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. QPF VALUES HAVE SCALED BACK
JUST A TOUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE LATEST EURO
ENSEMBLES GIVE AN 80% CHANCE OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 1 INCH
PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND ONLY A 10-20% CHANCE OF
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 2" ANYWHERE IN MIDDLE TN. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
REMAIN VERY LOW. IF ANY INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO CREEP IN FRIDAY,
THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WITH THAT BEING SAID,
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AS WE ARE NOT IN A FAVORABLE
LOCATION WITH PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. PWAT VALUES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS EVENT, SO PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN
BE EXPECTED. IT WILL ALSO BE WINDY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 35 MPH. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND FULLY
COME TO AN END EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WE WILL DRY BACK OUT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CARRYING US INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 50S TO 60S DURING THE AFTERNOONS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
30S TO 40S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL FALL MOSTLY BELOW 10KT
OVERNIGHT, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH 2KFT WINDS FROM THE WEST NEAR 40KT. THE
WINDS ALOFT WILL DECREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK, SO WIND SHEAR REMARKS
WILL END IN THE TAFS AROUND 10Z. DAYTIME WEDNESDAY WILL BRING
GENERALLY LIGHTER WNW WINDS SURFACE AND ALOFT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 38 60 36 61 / 0 0 10 70
CLARKSVILLE 35 58 34 59 / 0 0 10 90
CROSSVILLE 33 52 31 54 / 0 0 10 40
COLUMBIA 36 59 36 61 / 0 0 10 60
COOKEVILLE 33 54 34 56 / 0 0 10 60
JAMESTOWN 35 51 30 55 / 0 0 10 50
LAWRENCEBURG 35 59 36 61 / 0 0 10 50
MURFREESBORO 35 59 34 61 / 0 0 10 60
WAVERLY 35 57 36 60 / 0 0 10 80
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......UNGER
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....13
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