631
FXUS64 KOHX 290803
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
203 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 202 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
- SUNNY AND WARMER TODAY.
- HIGH RAIN CHANCES (80-90%) THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CARRY US INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF
FEBRUARY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND A SURFACE HIGH SITTING TO OUR SOUTH WILL
BRING ANOTHER NICE DAY TO MIDDLE TN. HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE FILTERING THROUGH THE
AREA AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING RAIN LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL
PUSH MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WE WILL SEE PWATS
PUSH TO AROUND 1.50" BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WE WILL START THURSDAY OFF
DRY BUT AS THE LOW DEEPENS WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL AMP UP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS
TO THE AREA ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20 MPH.
HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER MO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER TN. THIS WILL KEEP
THE BREEZY WINDS IN PLACE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
WITH THE HIGH PWATS THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE VERY LIMITED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT KEEPING THE
THUNDERSTORM RISK VERY LOW, NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND WE
WILL SEE SOME MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY DEVELOP, THIS WILL KEEP
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL BE MILD ON FRIDAY PUSHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. RAIN
TOTALS THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-2" ACROSS THE
AREA WITH MOST OF THE RAIN COMING THURSDAY LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
AREA AND A FEW SPOTS MAY PICK UP MORE THAN 2", THE NBM GIVES A
20-50% CHANCE OF 2"+ FROM AROUND NASHVILLE WEST.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S SHORT WAVE
RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY WITH A DEEPENING LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA. THIS WILL HELP TO PULL WARM AIR NORTH AND WE WILL SEE
HIGHS PUSH BACK INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AND TO NEAR 70 FOR SOME ON
MONDAY.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST GROWS QUITE A BIT TUESDAY
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THE UNCERTAINTY IS WITH A TROUGH
EXITING THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHING INTO THE NORTHEAST AND HOW FAR
SOUTH THE COLD AIR WILL PUSH. THE IMPACT IS SMALL, EITHER WE ARE
LOOKING AT SEASONAL TEMPS OR MILD TEMPS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AT LEAST THROUGH MID-WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD WITH CIGS
DEVELOPING AROUND 25KFT.
ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY MOSTLY BELOW 10KT
OVERNIGHT, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH 2KFT WINDS FROM THE WEST NEAR 40KT. THE
WINDS ALOFT WILL DECREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK, SO WIND SHEAR REMARKS
WILL END IN THE TAFS 10Z-12Z. DAYTIME WEDNESDAY WILL BRING
GENERALLY LIGHTER WNW WINDS SURFACE AND ALOFT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 60 36 61 52 / 0 10 70 90
CLARKSVILLE 58 34 59 52 / 0 10 90 100
CROSSVILLE 52 31 54 46 / 0 10 40 80
COLUMBIA 59 36 61 52 / 0 10 60 90
COOKEVILLE 54 34 56 49 / 0 10 60 90
JAMESTOWN 51 30 55 46 / 0 10 50 90
LAWRENCEBURG 59 36 61 53 / 0 10 50 90
MURFREESBORO 59 34 61 52 / 0 10 60 90
WAVERLY 57 36 60 52 / 0 10 80 100
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MUELLER
LONG TERM....MUELLER
AVIATION.....13
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