913
FXUS64 KOHX 291750
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1150 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1144 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
- SUNNY AND WARMER TODAY.
- HIGH RAIN CHANCES (80-90%) THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CARRY US INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF
FEBRUARY.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
TEMPERATURES ARE SITTING IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S CURRENTLY
WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EJECT OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS THIS EVENING
WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING SHOWERS WITH IT. SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE
WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND OR JUST AFTER 12Z. THOSE SHOWERS WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES.
RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PWAT VALUES
PEAKING AT AROUND 1.5". THE OVERALL MOTION WILL BE PROGRESSIVE
ENOUGH TO PROHIBIT A WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT. HREF AND NBM
PROBABILITIES SHOW A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE (60-80%) THAT LOCATIONS
IN THE NORTHWEST I.E. STEWART/HOUSTON/MONTGOMERY COUNTIES PICK UP
GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
ENSEMBLES SHOW A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING 2.5" IN
THE SAME AREA. ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA, RAIN TOTALS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 1-2". WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN
20-30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE THE SYSTEM PASSES, THE TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH
CONDITIONS WARMING INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY. ENSEMBLES SHOW A LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCE TEMPERATURES REACH AT LEAST 70 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND NASHVILLE METRO AREA ON MONDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY BUT THERE ARE STILL A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE ARRIVAL OF SOME COLDER AIR AND
THE ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES WITH THAT FRONT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS START OUT
WESTERLY WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20KTS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...AND
WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND DROP OFF ON SPEED. WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY SWING AROUND TO MORE EASTERLY DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROFF THAT
WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH ON FRIDAY. LIGHT RAIN WILL BE OUT A HEAD
OF THE LOW/TROFF AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD/AFTER 30/13Z/. AS
THE TROF MOVES THROUGH THERE COULD BE HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES.
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 63 39 61 53 / 0 0 90 90
CLARKSVILLE 61 36 61 52 / 0 10 100 90
CROSSVILLE 56 33 52 46 / 0 0 70 80
COLUMBIA 63 39 62 54 / 0 10 80 90
COOKEVILLE 58 36 54 49 / 0 0 80 90
JAMESTOWN 56 31 52 45 / 0 0 80 90
LAWRENCEBURG 63 39 61 54 / 0 10 70 80
MURFREESBORO 63 36 60 53 / 0 0 80 90
WAVERLY 60 39 61 52 / 0 20 90 90
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....12
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