783
FXUS64 KOHX 300247
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
847 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 825 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
- MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
- HIGH RAIN CHANCES (80-90%) THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS NEAR 1 INCH, EXCEPT 1 TO 2 INCHES NORTHWEST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 845 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
DRY HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDED A SUNNY WEDNESDAY WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE AIR
MASS REMAINED QUITE DRY THIS EVENING WITH 00Z OHX UPPER AIR DATA
SHOWING A SUBSIDENCE PATTERN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF JUST ONE
QUARTER INCH. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAD DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
20S TO LOWER 30S, WELL BELOW NBM AND MOS GUIDANCE VALUES. THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL STAY DRY WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
WE ARE STILL EXPECTING RAINY WX, CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE
ARKLATEX AREA, TO MOVE OUR WAY. THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL
HELP HOLD OFF THE RAIN UNTIL DAYBREAK OR LATER TOMORROW MORNING.
THE FIRST WAVE OF RAIN WILL BE LIGHT WITH LESS THAN ONE QUARTER
INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE MORNING. MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN
LATER THURSDAY AND THE MAIN WAVE OF RAINFALL WILL COME THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WITH TOTALS REACHING NEAR 1 INCH FOR
MOST OF THE MID STATE, BUT UP TO 2 INCHES IN SOME PARTS OF OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. SOME PONDING WATER AND LOCAL STREET FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE, BUT WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR MAJOR OR WIDESPREAD
FLOODING. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT. MOST OF THE SHOWERS MOVE OUT FRIDAY MORNING, GIVING US
SEVERAL RAIN-FREE HOURS MIDDAY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SOME
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
TEMPERATURES ARE SITTING IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S CURRENTLY
WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EJECT OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS THIS EVENING
WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING SHOWERS WITH IT. SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE
WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND OR JUST AFTER 12Z. THOSE SHOWERS WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES.
RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PWAT VALUES
PEAKING AT AROUND 1.5". THE OVERALL MOTION WILL BE PROGRESSIVE
ENOUGH TO PROHIBIT A WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT. HREF AND NBM
PROBABILITIES SHOW A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE (60-80%) THAT LOCATIONS
IN THE NORTHWEST I.E. STEWART/HOUSTON/MONTGOMERY COUNTIES PICK UP
GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
ENSEMBLES SHOW A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING 2.5" IN
THE SAME AREA. ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA, RAIN TOTALS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 1-2". WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN
20-30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE THE SYSTEM PASSES, THE TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH
CONDITIONS WARMING INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY. ENSEMBLES SHOW A LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCE TEMPERATURES REACH AT LEAST 70 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND NASHVILLE METRO AREA ON MONDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY BUT THERE ARE STILL A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE ARRIVAL OF SOME COLDER AIR AND
THE ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES WITH THAT FRONT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT, BUT RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST AFTER 12Z. CIGS WILL DROP IN RESPONSE WITH MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT CKV, BNA, AND MQY BETWEEN 15Z AND
18Z. RAIN WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY AT TIMES, RESULTING IN REDUCED
VISIBILITY. THE CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING IS VERY LOW. OTHERWISE, NORTH
TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 06Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 39 61 53 66 / 10 90 100 50
CLARKSVILLE 38 59 51 64 / 10 100 100 30
CROSSVILLE 33 52 45 59 / 0 70 90 90
COLUMBIA 41 61 55 66 / 10 80 100 40
COOKEVILLE 36 54 49 62 / 0 80 100 80
JAMESTOWN 32 52 45 60 / 0 80 100 80
LAWRENCEBURG 41 61 55 66 / 10 70 90 50
MURFREESBORO 38 60 53 66 / 10 80 90 60
WAVERLY 41 61 53 64 / 20 100 100 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......13
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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