879
FXUS64 KOHX 300756
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
156 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 156 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
- HIGH RAIN CHANCES (80-100%) TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS NEAR 1 INCH, EXCEPT 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST.
- MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EXIT THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY WITH A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS. AS THE LOW DEEPENS WE WILL
SEE A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOP PUSHING DEEP MOISTURE NORTH WITH
PWATS PUSHING UP TO 1.50"+ BY TONIGHT. WE WILL START TO SEE WARM
AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING WITH PROFILES
GRADUALLY SATURATING AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AMP UP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
WARM FRONT GOES THROUGH FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF
OUR AREA. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO SET UP AROUND AND NORTH
OF I-40 THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING. RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. RAIN COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AND THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
VERY LOW.
AS THE LOW DEEPENS WE WILL SEE AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING BREEZY WINDS LATE AFTERNOON
CONTINUING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY
BE 20-30 MPH BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 35 MPH SOUTH
OF I-40.
RAIN WILL PUSH OUT FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY BY DAYBREAK BUT RAIN DOES LOOK TO LINGER OVER THE
PLATEAU FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SWING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WE WILL SEE SOME WEAK
MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY BUILD IN. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL PUSH INTO THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. THE COLD AIR WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
IN AND THAT WILL BRING A WARM DAY FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SET UP TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITONS FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE
COOLER THAN FRIDAY WITH THEM FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S. A TROUGH
AND SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND THAT
WILL HELP TO PUSH WARMER AIR NORTH WARMING US BACK INTO THE 60S
SUNDAY AND TO AROUND 70 MONDAY. AS THE TROUGH PUSHES OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE COOLER AIR MAKES IT IMPACTING OUR
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL COOL SOME ON TUESDAY FALLING
BACK INTO THE 60S. ZONAL FLOW SETS UP MID-WEEK AND THAT WILL BRING
SOME WARMING FOR TEMPERATURES. A FEW SHORT WAVES WILL BE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE FLOW AND WILL BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES MAINLY TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT, BUT RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST AFTER 12Z. AS IT DOES SO, CIGS WILL LOWER WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MID-MORNING. RAIN
MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES, RESULTING IN REDUCED VISIBILITY. THE CHANCE
FOR LIGHTNING IS VERY LOW. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAINS LIGHT
TONIGHT, BUT WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 18Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 61 53 66 43 / 90 100 50 0
CLARKSVILLE 59 51 64 41 / 100 100 30 0
CROSSVILLE 52 45 59 40 / 70 90 90 0
COLUMBIA 61 55 66 42 / 80 100 40 0
COOKEVILLE 54 49 62 41 / 80 100 80 0
JAMESTOWN 52 45 60 39 / 80 100 80 0
LAWRENCEBURG 61 55 66 43 / 70 90 50 0
MURFREESBORO 60 53 66 43 / 80 90 60 0
WAVERLY 61 53 64 41 / 100 100 20 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MUELLER
LONG TERM....MUELLER
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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