101
FXUS64 KOHX 301721
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1121 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1116 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
- HIGH RAIN CHANCES (80-100%) TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS NEAR 1 INCH, EXCEPT 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST.
- MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
A WAVE OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING. RAIN TOTALS SO FAR HAVE BEEN LESS THAN 0.25". THE
SURFACE LOW IS ORGANIZING OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AND
IT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT HOURS PROGRESS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1.3-1.5" THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING LEADING TO SOME PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN PRIOR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. THE 12Z HREF HAS MEDIAN RAINFALL TOTAL
THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY OF GREATER THAN HALF AN INCH BUT LESS THAN AN
INCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS INCREASE
AS YOU MOVE NORTHWEST. MEDIAN VALUES IN HOUSTON, STEWART, AND
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES ARE AROUND 2.5". THE HREF HAS A 30% CHANCE OR
LESS THOSE SAME COUNTIES RECEIVE 3" OR GREATER. WITH THAT SAID,
THE FLOODING CHANCES ARE LOW, SO A FLOOD WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED
AT THIS TIME.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF EVEN SEEING A
LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORM WITH THE COOL UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE NBM HAS BEEN SLOW TO PICK UP THIS RAIN CHANCE BUT THE MAJORITY
OF THE 12Z CAMS HAVE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM MID FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 03Z SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY. SUNDAY LOOKS BEAUTIFUL WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
INCREASING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER. THE NBM SHOWS ABOUT A 50% CHANCE THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF
THE AREA ALONG WITH THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA HIT AT LEAST 70
DEGREES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DISCREPANCIES REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH A
COLD AIR MASS MAKES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE EARLY
WEEK. GEFS MEMBERS GENERALLY SHOW THAT AIR MASS MAKING A VISIT TO
OUR AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH BY WEDNESDAY. THE
ENS AND GEPS MEMBERS GENERALLY KEEP THE COLD AIR FARTHER NORTH AND
KEEPS OUR AREA WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. NBM TEMPERATURES REFLECT THE
WARMER SOLUTION OF THE ENS AND GEPS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 532 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING BUT WILL DETERIORATE AFTER 15Z AS
PRECIPITATION MOVES OVER THE AREA. CIGS LOWER BETWEEN MVFR TO IFR
AFTER 18Z. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES CAUSING SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITY. SE WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AROUND 10-15
KTS AND THEN SWITCH TO THE SW LATE TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 52 68 44 56 / 100 50 20 0
CLARKSVILLE 51 67 42 54 / 100 30 20 0
CROSSVILLE 47 57 40 53 / 90 90 20 0
COLUMBIA 54 65 43 57 / 100 40 10 0
COOKEVILLE 49 60 42 54 / 100 90 20 0
JAMESTOWN 44 58 39 51 / 90 90 20 0
LAWRENCEBURG 55 64 43 56 / 90 70 20 0
MURFREESBORO 52 65 43 56 / 100 70 20 0
WAVERLY 52 65 42 55 / 100 20 10 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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