813
FXUS64 KOHX 301740
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1140 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1137 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
- HIGH RAIN CHANCES (80-100%) TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS NEAR 1 INCH, EXCEPT 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST.
- MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
A WAVE OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING. RAIN TOTALS SO FAR HAVE BEEN LESS THAN 0.25". THE
SURFACE LOW IS ORGANIZING OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AND
IT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT HOURS PROGRESS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1.3-1.5" THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING LEADING TO SOME PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN PRIOR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. THE 12Z HREF HAS MEDIAN RAINFALL TOTAL
THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY OF GREATER THAN HALF AN INCH BUT LESS THAN AN
INCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS INCREASE
AS YOU MOVE NORTHWEST. MEDIAN VALUES IN HOUSTON, STEWART, AND
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES ARE AROUND 2.5". THE HREF HAS A 30% CHANCE OR
LESS THOSE SAME COUNTIES RECEIVE 3" OR GREATER. WITH THAT SAID,
THE FLOODING CHANCES ARE LOW, SO A FLOOD WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED
AT THIS TIME.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF EVEN SEEING A
LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORM WITH THE COOL UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE NBM HAS BEEN SLOW TO PICK UP THIS RAIN CHANCE BUT THE MAJORITY
OF THE 12Z CAMS HAVE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM MID FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 03Z SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY. SUNDAY LOOKS BEAUTIFUL WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
INCREASING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER. THE NBM SHOWS ABOUT A 50% CHANCE THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF
THE AREA ALONG WITH THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA HIT AT LEAST 70
DEGREES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DISCREPANCIES REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH A
COLD AIR MASS MAKES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE EARLY
WEEK. GEFS MEMBERS GENERALLY SHOW THAT AIR MASS MAKING A VISIT TO
OUR AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH BY WEDNESDAY. THE
ENS AND GEPS MEMBERS GENERALLY KEEP THE COLD AIR FARTHER NORTH AND
KEEPS OUR AREA WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. NBM TEMPERATURES REFLECT THE
WARMER SOLUTION OF THE ENS AND GEPS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, EVEN INTO THE
IFR CATEGORY IN NW TAF SITES. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SW OVERNIGHT
AND BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RAIN
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND CAUSE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR AND CEILINGS IMPROVE FROM W TO E INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 61 52 68 44 / 90 100 50 20
CLARKSVILLE 61 51 67 42 / 100 100 30 20
CROSSVILLE 53 47 57 40 / 70 90 90 20
COLUMBIA 62 54 65 43 / 80 100 40 10
COOKEVILLE 55 49 60 42 / 80 100 90 20
JAMESTOWN 52 44 58 39 / 90 90 90 20
LAWRENCEBURG 61 55 64 43 / 70 90 70 20
MURFREESBORO 61 52 65 43 / 80 100 70 20
WAVERLY 61 52 65 42 / 100 100 20 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page