040
FXUS64 KOHX 031112
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
512 AM CST MON MAR 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 508 AM CST MON MAR 3 2025
- HIGH CHANCE FOR GUSTY WINDS OVER 40 MPH AT TIMES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
- HIGH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TUESDAY EVENING. FOCUS WILL BE WEST OF I-24 FOR ANY SEVERE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2025
WE WILL GET TO ENJOY ONE MORE QUIET DAY BEFORE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
RETURNS TO MIDDLE TN. HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BROUGHT COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY.
IT WILL BE A COLD START WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL START TO WARM THINGS UP WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN LOW, NOT AS
LOW AS SUNDAY BUT WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S, KEEPING
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE WEAK KEEPING THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOW. A WEAKENING
SHORT WAVE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH AND THAT WILL BRING SOME HIGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR.
AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND WE WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW DEEPEN OVER THE PLAINS.
THIS WILL PUSH MOISTURE BACK NORTH AND WE SHOULD SEE DEW POINTS
PUSH INTO THE 50S BY THE END OF DAY TUESDAY. AS THE LOW DEEPENS
A 10+ MB MEMPHIS TO KNOXVILLE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP WITH
A 55-75 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS FOR
TUESDAY MID-MORNING INTO THE EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS 35-45
MPH.
MUCH OF TUESDAY WILL BE DRY BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON AS WE SEE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PROFILES GRADUALLY
SATURATE. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW
LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS IS A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND THERE IS AMPLE SHEAR FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BUT MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO BUILD MUCH IF
ANY CAPE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LIMIT OUR CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AND OVERALL OUR CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
WEAK SURFACE CAPE MAY BUILD IN OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM IN THAT AREA BUT THE THREAT DOES LOOK LOW AT THIS TIME. SOME
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA. MODELS DO BUILD IN SOME CAPE BEHIND THE FRONT WHEN WE SEE
COLD AIR ADVECTION STEEPENING THE LAPSE RATES BUT AT THAT POINT
WE WILL LOSE THE FORCING AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK WITH RAIN
PUSHING OUT. RAIN TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ARE LOOKING TO BE
0.50-1.0" WITH MAYBE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHWEST.
IT WILL BE A QUICK HIT OF RAIN WITH MOST OF IT COMING BETWEEN 6
PM TUESDAY AND 4 AM WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY OVERNIGHT
BUT WILL COME DOWN SOME COMPARED TO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2025
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY AND WE WILL SEE THE TROUGH AXIS SWING THROUGH MIDDLE TN.
THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF
I-40 AND OVER THE PLATEAU. COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN AND SOME SNOW
COULD MIX IN WITH THE SHOWERS IN THE EVENING, AT THIS POINT NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AN INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A 35-45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WITH WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. AFTER SEEING HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 TUESDAY IT WILL
BE MUCH COOLER WEDNESDAY WITH THEM FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.
QUIET WEATHER WILL THEN MAKE A RETURN AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL MAKE IT TO NEAR 60 BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH OVER
THE WEEKEND AND THAT WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST MON MAR 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KTS TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 62 45 71 50 / 0 0 90 100
CLARKSVILLE 60 45 68 47 / 0 10 90 90
CROSSVILLE 56 38 62 47 / 0 0 60 100
COLUMBIA 62 45 68 46 / 0 0 90 100
COOKEVILLE 57 41 64 49 / 0 0 70 100
JAMESTOWN 56 38 63 49 / 0 0 60 100
LAWRENCEBURG 61 44 68 47 / 0 0 90 100
MURFREESBORO 61 43 68 48 / 0 0 80 100
WAVERLY 61 46 67 44 / 0 10 90 90
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
SHORT TERM...MUELLER
LONG TERM....MUELLER
AVIATION.....UNGER
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