387
FXUS64 KOHX 031633
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1033 AM CST MON MAR 3 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 945 AM CST MON MAR 3 2025
- HIGH CHANCE FOR GUSTY WINDS OVER 40 MPH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- HIGH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY, BUT A LOW CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER PRIMARILY WEST OF I-24. MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 945 AM CST MON MAR 3 2025
CALM WEATHER PREVAILS THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, COOL
TEMPERATURES, AND CALM WINDS. WE STILL REMAIN VERY DRY THOUGH WITH
CURRENT TEENS SITTING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE AREA. FORTUNATELY, SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL STAY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY, KEEPING OUR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
LOW.
LOOKING TOWARDS THE WEST THOUGH, OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM CAN BE SEEN
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ONTO THE GREAT PLAINS BY TOMORROW MORNING, AND AS IT
DOES SO, OUR SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO TIGHTEN AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO OUR
NORTHWEST AND A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET WITH 850MB WINDS OF 60-75
KNOTS IS STEERED OVERHEAD. THESE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN, RESULTING IN
VERY STRONG WINDS AREAWIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND GUSTS OF 40-50
MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH A 50-60% CHANCE THAT LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE PLATEAU, RECORD GUSTS OVER 50 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES.
THESE WINDS WILL HELP PULL SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD, BUT WITH AS
DRY AS WE HAVE BEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW, THE MOISTURE RECOVERY
WILL BE SLOW WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID-40S TO
LOW-50S BY MID-AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP KEEP MOST OF THE DAY
TUESDAY DRY, BUT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO
APPROACH THE TN RIVER AROUND 3 PM AND TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
THE EVENING. WHILE SHEAR REMAINS MORE THAN AMPLE, IT'S THE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THAT CONTINUES TO BE OUR LIMITING FACTORS
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE THAT CAPE
VALUES EXCEED 100 J/KG WEST OF I-24. SO WHILE IT'S STILL NOT ZERO,
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS LOW THROUGH TOMORROW. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS.
BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, THE FRONT AND MOST OF THE RAIN RAIN WILL
HAVE CLEARED THE AREA. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, BUT
WILL BE LESS AT AROUND 30-35 MPH COMPARED TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 945 AM CST MON MAR 3 2025
STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS STRONG AND THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. SO THE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS LOW WILL ALSO KEEP A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE
FORECAST PRIMARILY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING, DROPPING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT COULD ALSO RESULT
IN SNOW MIXING IN ALONG THE PLATEAU, HOWEVER, NO ACCUMULATIONS OR
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
CALMER WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY WARM BY
FRIDAY. BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THIS WEEKEND BRINGS A LOW CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST MON MAR 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KTS TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 62 45 71 50 / 0 0 90 100
CLARKSVILLE 60 45 68 47 / 0 0 90 90
CROSSVILLE 56 38 62 47 / 0 0 60 100
COLUMBIA 62 45 68 46 / 0 0 90 100
COOKEVILLE 57 41 64 49 / 0 0 70 100
JAMESTOWN 56 38 63 49 / 0 0 60 100
LAWRENCEBURG 61 44 68 47 / 0 0 90 100
MURFREESBORO 61 43 68 48 / 0 0 80 100
WAVERLY 61 46 67 44 / 0 0 90 90
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....UNGER
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