099
FXUS64 KOHX 040443
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1043 PM CST MON MAR 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1039 PM CST MON MAR 3 2025
- HIGH CHANCE FOR GUSTY WINDS OVER 40 MPH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- HIGH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY, BUT A LOW CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER PRIMARILY WEST OF I-24. MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CST MON MAR 3 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PUSHING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
INTO THE PLAINS WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL BRING
ACTIVE WEATHER TO MIDDLE TN FOR TUESDAY. THE PRESSURE WITH THE
LOW CENTER WILL FALL TO AROUND 984 MB OVER CENTRAL MO BY TOMORROW
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MIDDLE
TN BY THE AFTERNOON WITH A PRESSURE DIFFERENCE OF 15+ MB FROM
MEMPHIS TO KNOXVILLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY GUSTY WINDS FOR
TUESDAY WITH THEM STARTING TO AMP UP IN THE MORNING AND THEN
PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
INCREASE TO 55-75 KNOTS AND WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS AT
THE SURFACE OF 35-50 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL BE IMPACTFUL AND A
WIND ADVISORY IS OUT FOR THE AREA. DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGE
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUILD IN TONIGHT AND WE WILL SEE DRY
WEATHER FOR THE MORNING. AS THE LOW LIFTS MOISTURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AND SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 2 PM.
THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH IN THE EVENING MOVING INTO THE WEST
AFTER 6 PM AND WILL BRING A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT COULD BE
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY. IT WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA
AND SHOULD PUSH OUT BY 3 AM.
MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON BUT DEW POINTS ACROSS
OUR AREA WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE THE MID 50S. THIS WILL REALLY
LIMIT INSTABILITY THAT WE SEE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE
HIGHER INSTABILITY STAYING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. WE STILL MAY
GET SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION AND GIVEN HOW DYNAMIC
THIS SYSTEM IS IT WON'T TAKE MUCH TO SEE STRONG STORMS. OUR
CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS LOOKS LOW BUT STILL CAN'T RULE OUT GUSTY
WINDS WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OR MAYBE AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT IN OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST. RAIN TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
0.50-1.0" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES UP TO 1.25" POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
I-40.
THE LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH MIDDLE TN. THIS WILL BRING A MEDIUM
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MID MORNING INTO THE EVENING
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. COLDER AIR WILL BE
FILTERING IN AND SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN TOWARDS THE EVENING
MAINLY OVER THE PLATEAU BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. AFTER
SEEING HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S TUESDAY IT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH WIND GUSTS 25-40 MPH. THINGS DRY OUT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN. IT WILL BE
COLD WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CST MON MAR 3 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRY
WEATHER. IT WILL REMAIN COOL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL WARM THINGS BACK INTO THE 60S
FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL PASS TO OUR
NORTH LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND THAT WILL BRING A MEDIUM
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS. TROUGHING THEN BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS WILL BRING THE RETURN OF DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WE LOOK TO WARM INTO
THE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST MON MAR 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND, AS
A RESPONSE, GRADIENT WINDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 40 KTS
OVERNIGHT, BUT WILL START DISSIPATING AROUND 15Z WHEN SURFACE
WINDS REALLY PICK UP. SOUTHERLY SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR 20
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS LIKELY FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. A LINE OF RAIN WITH PERHAPS
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT TERMINALS FROM WEST TO
EAST STARTING AT ROUGHLY 21Z AT CKV. TEMPOS ARE IN AT CKV, BNA,
AND MQY FOR CURRENT BEST TIMING OF IMPACT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 44 71 48 55 / 0 40 90 50
CLARKSVILLE 45 68 44 51 / 10 70 100 50
CROSSVILLE 38 63 46 54 / 0 10 100 50
COLUMBIA 44 70 45 54 / 0 50 100 30
COOKEVILLE 41 65 47 54 / 0 10 100 50
JAMESTOWN 39 65 47 55 / 0 0 100 60
LAWRENCEBURG 44 69 46 54 / 0 30 100 30
MURFREESBORO 42 70 46 55 / 0 20 90 40
WAVERLY 47 68 42 51 / 10 70 100 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
SHORT TERM...MUELLER
LONG TERM....MUELLER
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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