995
FXUS64 KOHX 041744
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1144 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1144 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
- GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, BOTH IN AND OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH EAST OF I-65 ARE HIGH
(70+%).
- HIGH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY.
CHANCES FOR SEVERE ARE LOW, AND MAINLY WEST OF I-24. MAIN
IMPACTS ARE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
CLEAR SKIES FOR RIGHT NOW, WITH CLOUDS INVADING FROM THE WEST AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT BRINGS BOTH OUR WIND THREAT AND
SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING.
FOR THE WIND THREAT, AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED, RESULTING IN THE GUSTY WINDS CURRENTLY
ONGOING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. A STRENGTHENING LLJ WITH SPEEDS UP
TO 75 KNOTS OVER OUR HEADS DOESN'T HELP THE CASE FOR GUSTY WINDS
THIS EVENING. THEREFORE, A PORTION OF THE WIND ADVISORY ON THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WAS UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING, AS
PROBABILITY FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH IN THAT AREA IS 70% OR
HIGHER. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA COULD SEE WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH
AS THE LLJ AND PGF COMBINE, BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH HIGH
WIND CRITERIA. IMPACTS FROM THESE HIGH WINDS WILL INCLUDE POWER
OUTAGES SO MAKE SURE YOUR DEVICES ARE CHARGED!
FOR THE SEVERE THREAT, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA INTO
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, MOISTURE WILL SURGE IN FROM THE SOUTH
IN THE WARM SECTOR. UNFORTUNATELY, IT DOESN'T LOOK TO BE ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME JUST HOW DRY THIS AIR MASS IS CURRENT. DEW POINTS ARE NOT
LOOKING TO BREAK 55 DEGREES IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS DOESN'T GET
RID OF OUR SEVERE THREAT, BUT IT DOES LIMIT IT. INSTABILITY IS WEAK,
BUT THERE, SO WE COULD SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS IN THE AREA, WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN AS OUR MAIN THREATS. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN THE SW, CLOSE TO THE ALABAMA STATE LINE.
TIMING IS STILL LOOKING LIKE THIS EVENING, AROUND 4 - 6 PM IN THE
WEST, AND EXITING TO THE EAST BY MIDNIGHT.
AFTER THE SEVERE THREAT, IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT AREAS ON THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU COULD SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES WITH HOW COLD IT WILL
GET AFTER. NO ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
THE LONG TERM LOOKS CALMER OVERALL, WITH A FEW DISTURBANCES TO BRING
US PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND, AND RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS TO BE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS (LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN
INCH). THIS COULD CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE SYSTEM, BUT RIGHT
NOW IT JUST LOOKS LIKE LIGHT RAIN IN THE GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES OVER
THE NEXT WEEK WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN THE 50S, 60S, AND POSSIBLY EVEN
THE 70S FOR HIGHS. THE LATTER WOULD COME AS SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN
INTO NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND WILL BE
THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN. HIGH CHANCE OF SOUTHERLY GUSTS OF
35 TO 45 KNOTS AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH CHANCE
THAT GUSTS OF 50+ KNOTS IMPACTS CSV AND SRB DURING THE 00Z TO 004Z
TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY AFTER 04Z, BUT LLWS
WILL THEN BECOME AN ISSUE WITH 50-60 KNOT WINDS AT AROUND 2,000
FEET. ADDITIONALLY, LIGHT RAIN WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AROUND
21Z WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TRACKING EAST ACROSS MIDDLE TN
LIKELY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING IS LOW WITH THIS
LINE SO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY TS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. FINALLY,
CIGS WILL DROP BEHIND THE LINE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 72 46 55 32 / 50 100 40 10
CLARKSVILLE 68 42 51 30 / 70 100 40 10
CROSSVILLE 63 46 53 27 / 0 100 40 40
COLUMBIA 70 43 54 30 / 60 100 30 10
COOKEVILLE 65 46 54 29 / 10 100 40 30
JAMESTOWN 64 46 55 27 / 0 100 40 30
LAWRENCEBURG 70 45 54 31 / 40 100 20 10
MURFREESBORO 69 45 55 31 / 30 100 30 10
WAVERLY 68 40 51 30 / 80 100 30 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ005>010-023>031-
056>064-075-077-093>095.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ011-032>034-
065-066-078>080.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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