122
FXUS64 KOHX 050053
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
653 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 605 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
- GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, BOTH IN AND OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH EAST OF I-65 ARE HIGH
(70+%).
- HIGH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY.
CHANCES FOR SEVERE ARE LOW, AND MAINLY WEST OF I-24. MAIN
IMPACTS ARE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 653 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
A 986 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SITTING OVER MO THIS EVENING AND
THAT IS BRINGING VERY GUSTY NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS. CURRENT WIND
GUSTS ACROSS THE AREA ARE RANGING FROM 30-45 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
JUST OVER 50 MPH. A STRONG 850 MB JET IS STARTING TO AMP UP AHEAD
OF A LINE OF SHOWERS AND WILL INCREASE TO 60-80 KNOTS OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THE MAIN QUESTION AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE EVENING
IS WILL WE BE ABLE TO MIX INTO THAT JET. WE WILL LIKELY LOOSE SOME
OF OUR MIXING BUT BUFKIT DOES SHOW SOME MIXING JUST AHEAD OF THE
LINE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLATEAU, IF THAT HAPPENS WE
WILL SEE A SHORT TIME FRAME OF GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PLATEAU. MODELS ARE SHOWING ABOUT A
20-40% CHANCE OF WINDS ABOVE 55 MPH. THE TIME FRAME FOR THIS
WOULD BE BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT.
THE WARM FRONT IS SITTING TO OUR SOUTH AT THIS HOUR AND WILL LIFT
NORTH BUT WILL LIKELY FALL JUST SHORT OF MAKING IT INTO MIDDLE
TN. DEW POINTS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN THE MID 60S. THESE HIGHER
DEW POINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT HERE BUT WE WILL SEE DEW
POINTS INTO THE MID 50S SERGE INTO MIDDLE TN JUST AHEAD OF A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY THAT WILL BRING A LINE OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. THIS LINE LOOKS TO PUSH INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER 8 PM
AND QUICKLY PUSH EAST PUSHING OUT OF THE AREA BY 2 AM. SURFACE
CAPE WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA AND THAT WILL LIMIT
OUR SEVERE POTENTIAL. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
LINE AS THERE IS AMPLE SHEAR ALOFT. SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AFTER 2
AM THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN QUITE A BIT, WINDS WILL BACK OFF SOME
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
CLEAR SKIES FOR RIGHT NOW, WITH CLOUDS INVADING FROM THE WEST AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT BRINGS BOTH OUR WIND THREAT AND
SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING.
FOR THE WIND THREAT, AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED, RESULTING IN THE GUSTY WINDS CURRENTLY
ONGOING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. A STRENGTHENING LLJ WITH SPEEDS UP
TO 75 KNOTS OVER OUR HEADS DOESN'T HELP THE CASE FOR GUSTY WINDS
THIS EVENING. THEREFORE, A PORTION OF THE WIND ADVISORY ON THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WAS UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING, AS
PROBABILITY FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH IN THAT AREA IS 70% OR
HIGHER. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA COULD SEE WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH
AS THE LLJ AND PGF COMBINE, BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH HIGH
WIND CRITERIA. IMPACTS FROM THESE HIGH WINDS WILL INCLUDE POWER
OUTAGES SO MAKE SURE YOUR DEVICES ARE CHARGED!
FOR THE SEVERE THREAT, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA INTO
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, MOISTURE WILL SURGE IN FROM THE SOUTH
IN THE WARM SECTOR. UNFORTUNATELY, IT DOESN'T LOOK TO BE ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME JUST HOW DRY THIS AIR MASS IS CURRENT. DEW POINTS ARE NOT
LOOKING TO BREAK 55 DEGREES IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS DOESN'T GET
RID OF OUR SEVERE THREAT, BUT IT DOES LIMIT IT. INSTABILITY IS WEAK,
BUT THERE, SO WE COULD SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS IN THE AREA, WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN AS OUR MAIN THREATS. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN THE SW, CLOSE TO THE ALABAMA STATE LINE.
TIMING IS STILL LOOKING LIKE THIS EVENING, AROUND 4 - 6 PM IN THE
WEST, AND EXITING TO THE EAST BY MIDNIGHT.
AFTER THE SEVERE THREAT, IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT AREAS ON THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU COULD SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES WITH HOW COLD IT WILL
GET AFTER. NO ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
THE LONG TERM LOOKS CALMER OVERALL, WITH A FEW DISTURBANCES TO BRING
US PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND, AND RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS TO BE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS (LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN
INCH). THIS COULD CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE SYSTEM, BUT RIGHT
NOW IT JUST LOOKS LIKE LIGHT RAIN IN THE GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES OVER
THE NEXT WEEK WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN THE 50S, 60S, AND POSSIBLY EVEN
THE 70S FOR HIGHS. THE LATTER WOULD COME AS SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN
INTO NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS OF 35 TO
45 KTS WILL BE COMMON AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 03Z TO 05Z WITH A
HIGH CHANCE OF GUSTS BETWEEN 45 TO 50 KTS AT CSV AND SRB. WINDS
WILL RELAX SOME AFTER THE 03-05Z TIMEFRAME, BUT LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL KICK IN AT THIS TIME WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 45 TO 60 KTS
AT 2KFT. RAIN IS MOVING IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT THIS
TIME AND WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VIS UPON IMPACT. THERE IS A VERY
LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER AND WITH CONFIDENCE BEING SO LOW, NO THUNDER
HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN THE TAF. CIGS WILL FALL TO MVFR THRESHOLDS
AROUND 12Z AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE WSW DURING THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 46 55 32 52 / 100 40 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 43 52 30 50 / 100 40 0 0
CROSSVILLE 46 52 26 44 / 100 50 40 0
COLUMBIA 44 53 30 51 / 100 30 0 0
COOKEVILLE 46 53 29 46 / 100 50 40 0
JAMESTOWN 46 55 27 44 / 100 40 40 0
LAWRENCEBURG 45 53 30 51 / 100 30 0 0
MURFREESBORO 46 55 31 51 / 100 40 10 0
WAVERLY 41 52 29 50 / 100 30 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ005>010-023>031-
056>064-075-077-093>095.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ011-032>034-
065-066-078>080.
UPDATE.......MUELLER
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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