174
FXUS64 KOHX 050444
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1044 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1041 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
- GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 40 MPH.
- SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING, SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN
DURING THE EVENING. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER THE
PLATEAU.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SITTING OVER NORTHERN MO AND A LINE
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS MOVING EAST THROUGH MIDDLE TN. THIS
LINE WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA BY 3 AM AND WE WILL SEE QUIETER
WEATHER AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AFTER SEEING VERY STRONG
WINDS THEY WILL START TO COME DOWN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOSENS UP SOME BUT GUSTS TO 30 MPH STILL CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL GET A BREAK IN PRECIP WITH LOWS FALLING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S. WINDS WILL START TO PICK BACK UP DURING THE
MID MORNING AND WILL PEAK LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS 30-40 MPH.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND WE WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWING THROUGH
MIDDLE TN. THIS WILL BRING A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS MID MORNING INTO THE EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-40 AND OVER THE PLATEAU. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE PLATEAU INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE THINGS TAPPER OFF. COLD AIR WILL BE
FILTERING IN AND THAT WILL BRING COOLING TEMPERATURES AS THE
AFTERNOON GOES ON AND WE COULD START TO SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN
TOWARDS THE EVENING. MOST OF THE AREA WILL NOT SEE ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION BUT WE COULD SEE SOME OVER THE PLATEAU WHERE SHOWERS
WILL LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVENING. OVERALL JUST A DUSTING IS
EXPECTED BUT THERE IS A 20-40% OF SEEING UP TO AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY AND THIS WILL BRING
STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSTANCE THAT WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND FOR THE
START OF THE DAY. WE WILL GET SOME AFTERNOON MIXING WHICH WILL
START TO BRING CLEARING SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE CHILLY ONLY MAKING
IT INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER
QUIET DAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WILL PASS
TO OUR NORTH BRINGING A LOW CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH LATER
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY KEEPING A LOW CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE 50S OVER
THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK WARMING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S MONDAY AND INTO THE 70S TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
HIGH WINDS CONTINUE PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN MIDDLE TN WITH GUSTS
MEASURED BETWEEN 45-55 KTS AT BOTH CSV AND SRB. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT CURRENTLY OVER THOSE TERMINALS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WINDS WILL STAY GUSTY THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA. GUSTS TO 30 KTS WILL BE COMMON. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE A
CONCERN AT CSV AND SRB OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS AT 2KFT. THIS
WILL DIMINISH BY 12Z. RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOR CSV AND SRB, COMING TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST.
CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR THRESHOLDS AFTER 12Z AS A COLD FRONT WORKS
THROUGH THE AREA. SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
SHOWERS AT BNA, MQY, AND CKV. A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS LIKELY AS
TEMPERATURES DROP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT CSV AND SRB ALONG WITH A
DROP TO IFR CIGS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 46 55 32 52 / 100 50 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 43 52 30 50 / 100 40 10 0
CROSSVILLE 46 53 27 44 / 100 50 40 0
COLUMBIA 44 54 30 52 / 100 40 10 0
COOKEVILLE 46 53 30 46 / 100 60 40 0
JAMESTOWN 46 54 27 44 / 100 50 40 0
LAWRENCEBURG 45 53 30 51 / 100 30 10 0
MURFREESBORO 46 55 31 51 / 100 50 10 0
WAVERLY 41 52 29 51 / 100 40 10 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ005>010-023>031-
056>064-075-077-093>095.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ011-032>034-
065-066-078>080.
SHORT TERM...MUELLER
LONG TERM....MUELLER
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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