896
FXUS64 KOHX 051126
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
526 AM CST WED MAR 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 515 AM CST WED MAR 5 2025
- GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 40 MPH.
- SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING, SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN
DURING THE EVENING. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER THE
PLATEAU.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SITTING OVER NORTHERN MO AND A LINE
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS MOVING EAST THROUGH MIDDLE TN. THIS
LINE WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA BY 3 AM AND WE WILL SEE QUIETER
WEATHER AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AFTER SEEING VERY STRONG
WINDS THEY WILL START TO COME DOWN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOSENS UP SOME BUT GUSTS TO 30 MPH STILL CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL GET A BREAK IN PRECIP WITH LOWS FALLING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S. WINDS WILL START TO PICK BACK UP DURING THE
MID MORNING AND WILL PEAK LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS 30-40 MPH.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND WE WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWING THROUGH
MIDDLE TN. THIS WILL BRING A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS MID MORNING INTO THE EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-40 AND OVER THE PLATEAU. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE PLATEAU INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE THINGS TAPPER OFF. COLD AIR WILL BE
FILTERING IN AND THAT WILL BRING COOLING TEMPERATURES AS THE
AFTERNOON GOES ON AND WE COULD START TO SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN
TOWARDS THE EVENING. MOST OF THE AREA WILL NOT SEE ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION BUT WE COULD SEE SOME OVER THE PLATEAU WHERE SHOWERS
WILL LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVENING. OVERALL JUST A DUSTING IS
EXPECTED BUT THERE IS A 20-40% OF SEEING UP TO AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY AND THIS WILL BRING
STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSTANCE THAT WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND FOR THE
START OF THE DAY. WE WILL GET SOME AFTERNOON MIXING WHICH WILL
START TO BRING CLEARING SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE CHILLY ONLY MAKING
IT INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER
QUIET DAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WILL PASS
TO OUR NORTH BRINGING A LOW CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH LATER
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY KEEPING A LOW CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE 50S OVER
THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK WARMING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S MONDAY AND INTO THE 70S TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST WED MAR 5 2025
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME
PERIODS OF VFR THIS MORNING. WINDS HAVE WEAKENED SINCE LAST
FORECAST PACKAGE, BUT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY AROUND 15 TO 20
KTS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KTS. EXPECT SOME LLWS OVER THE PLATEAU
EARLY THIS MORNING, AROUND 40 KT THROUGH 15Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND THEN MIX WITH SNOW AFTER 00Z,
MAINLY OVER THE PLATEAU. CSV COULD SEE PERIODS OF IFR AFTER 00Z
WITH ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. CONDITIONS OVERALL IMPROVE AFTER
12Z THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 55 32 52 36 / 50 10 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 52 30 50 35 / 40 10 0 0
CROSSVILLE 53 27 44 28 / 50 40 0 0
COLUMBIA 54 30 52 34 / 40 10 0 0
COOKEVILLE 53 30 46 31 / 60 40 0 0
JAMESTOWN 54 27 44 28 / 50 40 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 53 30 51 34 / 30 10 0 0
MURFREESBORO 55 31 51 33 / 50 10 0 0
WAVERLY 52 30 51 36 / 40 10 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ011-032>034-065-066-078>080.
SHORT TERM...MUELLER
LONG TERM....MUELLER
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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