648
FXUS64 KOHX 051208
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
608 AM CST WED MAR 5 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 547 AM CST WED MAR 5 2025
- GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH.
- SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THE DAY, SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN DURING THE
EVENING. HIGH CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 1 INCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PLATEAU.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 547 AM CST WED MAR 5 2025
UPDATES THIS MORNING WERE FOCUSED TOWARDS THE SNOW POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG
THE PLATEAU WILL SEE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT.
LATEST HREF PROBABILITIES SHOW GREATER THAN A 90 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR AT LEAST 1 INCH. THERE IS BETWEEN A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES. THIS HAS PROMPTED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PLATEAU FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM THURSDAY. WITH THE ADDED
TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT, THIS REGION HAS BEEN KNOWN TO SQUEEZE OUT
ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND OVER ACHIEVE WHEN IT COMES TO
ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY PERTAINING TO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOWEVER AND THE TIMING OF WHEN SNOW BEGINS
TO MIX WITH THE RAIN AND/OR CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS TODAY, NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN ON THE
WARMER SIDE DELAYING THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW. IF THIS
OCCURS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES FAIL TO COOL SOON ENOUGH ALONG THE
PLATEAU, THAN LESSER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SITTING OVER NORTHERN MO AND A LINE
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS MOVING EAST THROUGH MIDDLE TN. THIS
LINE WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA BY 3 AM AND WE WILL SEE QUIETER
WEATHER AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AFTER SEEING VERY STRONG
WINDS THEY WILL START TO COME DOWN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOSENS UP SOME BUT GUSTS TO 30 MPH STILL CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL GET A BREAK IN PRECIP WITH LOWS FALLING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S. WINDS WILL START TO PICK BACK UP DURING THE
MID MORNING AND WILL PEAK LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS 30-40 MPH.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND WE WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWING THROUGH
MIDDLE TN. THIS WILL BRING A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS MID MORNING INTO THE EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-40 AND OVER THE PLATEAU. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE PLATEAU INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE THINGS TAPPER OFF. COLD AIR WILL BE
FILTERING IN AND THAT WILL BRING COOLING TEMPERATURES AS THE
AFTERNOON GOES ON AND WE COULD START TO SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN
TOWARDS THE EVENING. MOST OF THE AREA WILL NOT SEE ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION BUT WE COULD SEE SOME OVER THE PLATEAU WHERE SHOWERS
WILL LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVENING. OVERALL JUST A DUSTING IS
EXPECTED BUT THERE IS A 20-40% OF SEEING UP TO AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY AND THIS WILL BRING
STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSTANCE THAT WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND FOR THE
START OF THE DAY. WE WILL GET SOME AFTERNOON MIXING WHICH WILL
START TO BRING CLEARING SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE CHILLY ONLY MAKING
IT INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER
QUIET DAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WILL PASS
TO OUR NORTH BRINGING A LOW CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH LATER
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY KEEPING A LOW CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE 50S OVER
THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK WARMING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S MONDAY AND INTO THE 70S TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST WED MAR 5 2025
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME
PERIODS OF VFR THIS MORNING. WINDS HAVE WEAKENED SINCE LAST
FORECAST PACKAGE, BUT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY AROUND 15 TO 20
KTS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KTS. EXPECT SOME LLWS OVER THE PLATEAU
EARLY THIS MORNING, AROUND 40 KT THROUGH 15Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND THEN MIX WITH SNOW AFTER 00Z,
MAINLY OVER THE PLATEAU. CSV COULD SEE PERIODS OF IFR AFTER 00Z
WITH ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. CONDITIONS OVERALL IMPROVE AFTER
12Z THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 52 32 52 36 / 50 10 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 48 30 50 35 / 50 10 0 0
CROSSVILLE 51 26 44 28 / 60 50 0 0
COLUMBIA 50 29 52 34 / 50 10 0 0
COOKEVILLE 52 29 46 31 / 60 50 0 0
JAMESTOWN 52 27 44 28 / 60 50 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 51 29 51 34 / 50 10 0 0
MURFREESBORO 53 31 51 33 / 50 20 0 0
WAVERLY 48 29 51 36 / 30 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ011-032>034-065-066-078>080.
UPDATE.......CRAVENS
SHORT TERM...MUELLER
LONG TERM....MUELLER
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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