278
FXUS64 KOHX 051727
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1127 AM CST WED MAR 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1114 AM CST WED MAR 5 2025
- GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH.
- SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THE DAY, SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN DURING THE
EVENING. HIGH CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 1 INCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PLATEAU.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1008 AM CST WED MAR 5 2025
AN UNUSUALLY STRONG 981 MB LOW CENTER IS CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN, AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
REMAINS QUITE STRONG, HENCE THE CONTINUATION OF THE WIND ADVISORY
FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT SWEPT THROUGH THE MID STATE LAST EVENING,
AND A BROAD SWATH OF OCCLUDED FRONT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SPORADIC
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND SOME SNOWFALL MAINLY ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES THERE DROP TO OR BELOW
FREEZING BY THURSDAY MORNING. FOR THIS REASON, A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR EXPECTED SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN THE MEANTIME, TEMPERATURES
TODAY HAVE ALREADY REACHED THEIR APEX, OR WILL SOON DO SO, AND
WILL SLOWLY FALL THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO RELAX SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT, AND CERTAINLY BY TOMORROW.
HENCE, THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT THE END OF THE DAY. SKIES
WILL START TO CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW, ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT CHILLY GIVEN THE NORTHWEST
BREEZE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1008 AM CST WED MAR 5 2025
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE MID STATE THURSDAY NIGHT,
AND THIS WILL SET US UP WITH SOME RETURN FLOW AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. THE WARMTH WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO COME THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT
WON'T BE NEARLY AS POTENT AS THE LAST, AS THERE WON'T BE A GREAT
DEAL OF ANTECEDENT MOISTURE, SO QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FROPA
IS VERY LIGHT. WE WILL EXPERIENCE A DROP IN TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND, BUT NOT MUCH ELSE. WE'LL KEEP LOW POPS IN FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION,
BUT, AGAIN, QPF IS HARDLY WORTH MENTIONING. TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK WILL WARM QUICKLY, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
70S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST WED MAR 5 2025
THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE PLATEAU...WILL
INCLUDE -SHRA FOR KCSV AND KSRB. CLOUDS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. SINCE IT IS
DAYTIME HOURS WILL GO A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC AND GO WITH LOW VFR
BKN/OVC035. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUDS WILL DEFINITELY THICKEN UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND LOWER...FIRMLY BECOMING MVFR.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS THROUGH TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT THERE
WILL BE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION SPREAD ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
FROM I-65 AND EAST. THIS PRECIPITATION COULD VERY WELL BE FROZEN
IN NATURE. WILL INCLUDE PROB30 FOR KBNA AND KMQY AND DOMINATE
DOMINATE -SN FOR CSV AND SRB. WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS CIGS WILL
BECOME IFR WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW BURSTS. ONCE THIS UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES PAST HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE.
WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING 20-25KTS. THEY WILL START OUT WESTERLY
AND TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY BY TOMORROW. THE GUSTS WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH THE WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 55 32 52 36 / 50 20 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 51 30 50 36 / 50 10 0 0
CROSSVILLE 52 26 44 28 / 60 50 0 0
COLUMBIA 53 30 52 34 / 50 10 0 0
COOKEVILLE 53 29 46 31 / 60 60 0 0
JAMESTOWN 53 27 44 28 / 60 60 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 53 30 51 33 / 50 20 0 0
MURFREESBORO 55 30 51 33 / 60 20 0 0
WAVERLY 51 28 50 36 / 40 10 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ011-032>034-065-066-078>080.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....12
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