679
FXUS64 KOHX 060047
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
647 PM CST WED MAR 5 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 632 PM CST WED MAR 5 2025
- GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH.
- SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THE DAY, SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN DURING THE
EVENING. HIGH CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 1 INCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PLATEAU.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 632 PM CST WED MAR 5 2025
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED OFF QUITE A BIT SO FAR THIS EVENING WITH
EVERYONE SITTING IN THE MID UP TO UPPER 30S RIGHT NOW. THE WIND
ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM, HOWEVER, WINDS ARE STILL
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH. SOME POCKETS OF 40 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AS WE'RE STILL SITTING UNDER A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT, BUT
WIDESPREAD GUSTS AND SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL LARGELY REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY.
THE LATEST NBM HAS BACKED OFF ON SNOW AMOUNTS, HOWEVER, THE 75TH
PERCENTILE STILL PUTS 1 INCH OVER PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. DECENT SNOW IS CURRENTLY FALLING OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY
THAT IS EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES TONIGHT.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE UP TO 2 INCHES IF ENOUGH MOISTURE
IS ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT. OUTSIDE OF SNOW, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AT
OR BELOW FREEZING FOR EVERYONE TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT BY DAYBREAK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1008 AM CST WED MAR 5 2025
AN UNUSUALLY STRONG 981 MB LOW CENTER IS CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN, AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
REMAINS QUITE STRONG, HENCE THE CONTINUATION OF THE WIND ADVISORY
FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT SWEPT THROUGH THE MID STATE LAST EVENING,
AND A BROAD SWATH OF OCCLUDED FRONT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SPORADIC
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND SOME SNOWFALL MAINLY ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES THERE DROP TO OR BELOW
FREEZING BY THURSDAY MORNING. FOR THIS REASON, A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR EXPECTED SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN THE MEANTIME, TEMPERATURES
TODAY HAVE ALREADY REACHED THEIR APEX, OR WILL SOON DO SO, AND
WILL SLOWLY FALL THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO RELAX SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT, AND CERTAINLY BY TOMORROW.
HENCE, THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT THE END OF THE DAY. SKIES
WILL START TO CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW, ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT CHILLY GIVEN THE NORTHWEST
BREEZE.
LONG TERM
MOVE OUT
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1008 AM CST WED MAR 5 2025
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE MID STATE THURSDAY NIGHT,
AND THIS WILL SET US UP WITH SOME RETURN FLOW AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. THE WARMTH WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO COME THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT
WON'T BE NEARLY AS POTENT AS THE LAST, AS THERE WON'T BE A GREAT
DEAL OF ANTECEDENT MOISTURE, SO QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FROPA
IS VERY LIGHT. WE WILL EXPERIENCE A DROP IN TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND, BUT NOT MUCH ELSE. WE'LL KEEP LOW POPS IN FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION,
BUT, AGAIN, QPF IS HARDLY WORTH MENTIONING. TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK WILL WARM QUICKLY, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
70S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST WED MAR 5 2025
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH VFR
RETURNING BY 16Z. FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
FOR THE WESTERN TERMINALS. LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FOR KCSV AND KSRB THROUGH 12Z, ACCUMULATION UP TO 2"
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THOSE TERMINALS. GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THEY WILL BE
STRONGEST UNTIL 06Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS FALLING TO AROUND 20
KNOTS AFTER THAT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 32 52 36 65 / 10 0 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 30 49 36 63 / 0 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 27 44 28 58 / 40 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 29 52 33 64 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 29 46 31 59 / 30 0 0 10
JAMESTOWN 27 44 28 58 / 40 0 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 29 51 33 63 / 10 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 30 52 32 63 / 10 0 0 0
WAVERLY 29 50 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ011-
032>034-065-066-078>080.
UPDATE.......BAGGETT
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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