004
FXUS64 KOHX 060431
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1031 PM CST WED MAR 5 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1019 PM CST WED MAR 5 2025
- SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK ALONG THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (30-50%) RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CST WED MAR 5 2025
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT.
OBSERVATION SITES ACROSS THE MID STATE ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING MID
TO LOW 30S WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 15-25 MPH. WITH THE WINDS STILL SO
GUSTY, THE FEEL-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 10S TO
LOW 20S. A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SOME LIGHTER REFLECTIVITY IS NOTED ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WITH THE HREF GIVING A 60% CHANCE OF REACHING 1 INCH AND
ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF REACHING 2 INCHES. WENT AHEAD AND MAINTAINED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES THAT WILL RUN
THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW, TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES TONIGHT WITH EVERYONE DROPPING
BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES A TOUCH WARMER AS RIDGING QUICKLY
BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
MORNING, LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOSENS WITH THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW. COLD AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW 30S AND UPPER 20S ALONG THE PLATEAU. THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL START PUSHING EAST FRIDAY, AND RETURN FLOW
WILL RESULT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION USHERING IN TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 60S. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS COLD FRONT, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LOW ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CST WED MAR 5 2025
AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND, A CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL PASS
TO OUR SOUTH THAT WILL BRING LOW TO MEDIUM (30-50%) RAIN CHANCES
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
ALSO BE ON THE LOWER SIDE WITH VALUES RANGING FROM A FEW HUNDRETHS
OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTH TO MAYBE A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS
THE SOUTH. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WE WILL
DRY OUT AND MAJORLY WARM UP NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S NEXT WEEK WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 40S/50S. THIS IS MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR AS THE NORMAL HIGH FOR NASHVILLE IS AROUND 61 DEGREES.
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME NEXT THURSDAY, SO WE WILL HAVE
SEVERAL DAY TO ENJOY THE SPRING-LIKE WEATHER WITHOUT RAIN!
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST WED MAR 5 2025
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH VFR
RETURNING BY 16Z. FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
FOR THE WESTERN TERMINALS. LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FOR KCSV AND KSRB THROUGH 12Z, ACCUMULATION UP TO 2"
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THOSE TERMINALS. GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THEY WILL BE
STRONGEST UNTIL 06Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS FALLING TO AROUND 20
KNOTS AFTER THAT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 32 52 36 65 / 10 0 0 20
CLARKSVILLE 30 49 35 63 / 0 0 10 30
CROSSVILLE 26 44 27 57 / 40 0 0 20
COLUMBIA 29 52 33 64 / 0 0 0 20
COOKEVILLE 29 46 30 60 / 30 0 0 20
JAMESTOWN 26 44 28 58 / 40 0 0 20
LAWRENCEBURG 29 51 33 63 / 0 0 0 20
MURFREESBORO 30 51 32 63 / 10 0 0 20
WAVERLY 29 50 35 63 / 0 0 0 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ011-
032>034-065-066-078>080.
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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