478
FXUS64 KOHX 070403
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1003 PM CST THU MAR 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1001 PM CST THU MAR 6 2025
- INCREASED RISK FOR FIRE WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY AND
WINDY CONDITIONS.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (30-50%) RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO MID NEXT WEEK. NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST THU MAR 6 2025
GOES-EAST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MORNING LOW CLOUDS STEADILY
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. WE'RE PRETTY
MUCH CLEAR WEST OF I-65, AND CLEARING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST
BY THE AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S, AND A DECREASING WEST-NORTHWEST
BREEZE.
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EXPANSION TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS EVENING, WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH REGION TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE
CLEAR, CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S, WITH UPPER
20S ACROSS THE PLATEAU.
WE'LL TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EASTWARD OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. THIS WILL FEATURE A
ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, MEANING WE'LL SEE
APPRECIABLE WARMING DURING THE DAY. OUTSIDE OF THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE PLATEAU, HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 MPH AT TIMES, WHICH COULD POSE A RISK FOR ELEVATED
FIRE CONDITIONS. THE CLIPPER WILL APPROACH MIDDLE TENNESSEE
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE PRETTY LOW DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE VALUES AND THE TRANSIENT
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST THU MAR 6 2025
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGHOUT THE LONG-TERM
PERIOD, AND THIS INCLUDES ANOTHER SYSTEM DEPICTED IN MEDIUM-RANGE
GUIDANCE SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. WE APPEAR TO REMAIN ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, SO BEST
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN SOUTH OF I-40 AT THIS TIME. RAIN AMOUNTS UP TO
ONE QUARTER INCH ARE FORECAST.
AFTER THAT, WE'RE TREATED WITH WARM, YET DRY/STABLE WEATHER, INTO
MID NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AMIDST
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HIGHS THESE DAYS LOOK TO BE 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER, THIS COMES WITH SUBSEQUENT RAIN
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM IN THE
REGION PER LATEST GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED,
THERE'S NO SIGNAL FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD, DESPITE THE UPS AND DOWNS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CST THU MAR 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
BUILD IN TONIGHT LOWERING TO 050 AFTER 00Z. LIGHT WINDS UNDER 5
KNOTS TONIGHT SHIFT SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE UP TO 10-15 KNOTS
AFTER 17Z WITH GUSTS TO 23 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 36 65 48 58 / 0 10 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 35 64 44 54 / 0 10 10 0
CROSSVILLE 28 57 45 55 / 0 10 20 10
COLUMBIA 34 65 47 58 / 0 0 10 10
COOKEVILLE 31 59 46 55 / 0 10 20 10
JAMESTOWN 28 58 44 53 / 0 10 20 10
LAWRENCEBURG 34 65 48 58 / 0 0 10 10
MURFREESBORO 33 64 47 58 / 0 0 10 0
WAVERLY 36 63 43 55 / 0 10 10 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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