313
FXUS64 KOHX 070424
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1024 PM CST THU MAR 6 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1015 PM CST THU MAR 6 2025
- INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY AND
WINDY CONDITIONS.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (30-50%) RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO MID NEXT WEEK. NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CST THU MAR 6 2025
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA WITH A 1018MB HIGH ANALYZED
ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS TEXAS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL HELP KEEP LOWS A BIT
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND MID
20S ALONG THE PLATEAU.
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS IN EARNEST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING TO OUR
NORTH THAT WILL HAVE A TIGHT GRADIENT SURROUNDING IT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN OUR WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25 MPH WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF
10-15 MPH. WITH HOW DRY THINGS ARE AND THE INCREASED WINDS,
BURNING IS DISCOURAGED FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFF TO THE
EAST, USHERING IN AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTRUBANCE THAT WILL BRING LOW
(20-30%) RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, MAINLY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT, ALBEIT WEAK, WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THIS TIME THAT WILL
BRIEFLY COOL TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 50S SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CST THU MAR 6 2025
A CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY THAT WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AREAS
SOUTH OF I-40 HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN WITH A 40-50%
CHANCE. THERE WON'T BE MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURING AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM, SO QPF VALUES AREN'T VERY IMPRESSIVE - A FEW
HUNDRETHS ACROSS THE NORTH TO MAYBE A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTH.
WE WILL DRY OUT AND GET A REAL TASTE OF SPRING NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE
15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS OF MID TO UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 40S/50S. OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES COME THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE NBM IS CURRENTLY
GIVING THE WHOLE AREA MEDIUM TO HIGH (60-75%) RAIN CHANCES. THE
SETUP IS NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND SO FAR,
MODELS HAVE LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY, SO THUNDER CHANCES AT THIS
TIME ARE VERY LOW.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CST THU MAR 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
BUILD IN TONIGHT LOWERING TO 050 AFTER 00Z. LIGHT WINDS UNDER 5
KNOTS TONIGHT SHIFT SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE UP TO 10-15 KNOTS
AFTER 17Z WITH GUSTS TO 23 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 36 65 48 58 / 0 10 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 35 64 44 54 / 0 10 10 0
CROSSVILLE 28 57 45 55 / 0 10 20 10
COLUMBIA 34 65 47 58 / 0 0 10 10
COOKEVILLE 31 59 46 55 / 0 10 20 10
JAMESTOWN 28 58 44 53 / 0 10 20 10
LAWRENCEBURG 34 65 48 58 / 0 0 10 10
MURFREESBORO 33 64 47 58 / 0 0 10 0
WAVERLY 36 63 43 55 / 0 10 10 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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