163
FXUS64 KOHX 071139
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
539 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
- INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY AND
WINDY CONDITIONS.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (30-50%) RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO MID NEXT WEEK. NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CST THU MAR 6 2025
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA WITH A 1018MB HIGH ANALYZED
ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS TEXAS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL HELP KEEP LOWS A BIT
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND MID
20S ALONG THE PLATEAU.
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS IN EARNEST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING TO OUR
NORTH THAT WILL HAVE A TIGHT GRADIENT SURROUNDING IT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN OUR WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25 MPH WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF
10-15 MPH. WITH HOW DRY THINGS ARE AND THE INCREASED WINDS,
BURNING IS DISCOURAGED FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFF TO THE
EAST, USHERING IN AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTRUBANCE THAT WILL BRING LOW
(20-30%) RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, MAINLY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT, ALBEIT WEAK, WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THIS TIME THAT WILL
BRIEFLY COOL TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 50S SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CST THU MAR 6 2025
A CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY THAT WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AREAS
SOUTH OF I-40 HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN WITH A 40-50%
CHANCE. THERE WON'T BE MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURING AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM, SO QPF VALUES AREN'T VERY IMPRESSIVE - A FEW
HUNDRETHS ACROSS THE NORTH TO MAYBE A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTH.
WE WILL DRY OUT AND GET A REAL TASTE OF SPRING NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE
15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS OF MID TO UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 40S/50S. OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES COME THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE NBM IS CURRENTLY
GIVING THE WHOLE AREA MEDIUM TO HIGH (60-75%) RAIN CHANCES. THE
SETUP IS NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND SO FAR,
MODELS HAVE LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY, SO THUNDER CHANCES AT THIS
TIME ARE VERY LOW.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD.
MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. NEAR SURFACE WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 30 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECTS SOME LLWS AROUND 45
KTS BETWEEN 00Z TO 09Z. CSV/CSV COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS MOVE IN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 65 48 58 39 / 10 10 0 20
CLARKSVILLE 64 44 54 37 / 10 10 0 10
CROSSVILLE 57 45 55 34 / 10 20 10 20
COLUMBIA 65 47 58 39 / 0 10 10 30
COOKEVILLE 59 46 55 36 / 10 20 10 20
JAMESTOWN 58 44 53 33 / 10 20 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 65 48 58 40 / 0 10 10 30
MURFREESBORO 64 47 58 38 / 0 10 0 20
WAVERLY 63 43 55 39 / 10 10 0 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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