140
FXUS64 KOHX 071631
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1031 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1016 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
- THERE ARE INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (30-50%) RAIN CHANCES WILL AFFECT MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS WEEKEND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SET UP TO OUR EAST WITH SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DESPITE THE CLOUD
COVER, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO
STRONG WARM ADVECTION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
TO 30-40%. COUPLED WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 10-20 MPH, THERE IS AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. LIGHT ECHOES ARE EVEN NOW SHOWING UP ON
RADAR, AND WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE PREVALENT TONIGHT, MAINLY
EAST OF I-65, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
MID STATE. EVEN SO, QPF VALUES ARE VERY LIGHT. EXPECT COOLER
WEATHER TOMORROW ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS, SO TODAY'S FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WON'T CARRY OVER INTO SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY, WHICH WILL HELP PUSH A BAND OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE SO THAT LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RE-DEVELOP SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE LOW CENTER WILL HOLD TOGETHER AND ROTATE
JUST TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM ISN'T VERY DEEP, SO QPF VALUES ARE QUITE LOW.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF I-40. BUT ALL OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL EXPERIENCE COOL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE MID STATE STARTING ON MONDAY,
SO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEEL LIKE SPRINGTIME. THE NEXT ACTIVE
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AGAIN, QPF VALUES AREN'T ALL THAT GREAT.
OVERALL, THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS IS RATHER BENIGN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD.
MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. NEAR SURFACE WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 30 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECTS SOME LLWS AROUND 45
KTS BETWEEN 00Z TO 09Z. CSV/CSV COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS MOVE IN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 65 47 58 40 / 10 10 0 20
CLARKSVILLE 64 43 56 37 / 20 10 0 10
CROSSVILLE 57 45 53 35 / 10 20 0 20
COLUMBIA 65 46 58 40 / 10 10 0 20
COOKEVILLE 59 45 54 37 / 10 20 0 20
JAMESTOWN 58 44 53 34 / 10 20 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 65 46 58 40 / 10 20 0 20
MURFREESBORO 64 46 58 39 / 10 10 0 20
WAVERLY 63 43 56 39 / 20 10 0 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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