427
FXUS64 KOHX 080021
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
621 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 617 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM (30-50%) RAIN CHANCES WILL AFFECT MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS WEEKEND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 617 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE
MISSOURI/ILLINOIS BORDER WITH COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE OZARKS. THAT FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD. HIGH
RES MODELS DEPICT SOME SCATTERED LIGHT ECHOES FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH DAWN IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. ANY SHOWERS WILL BE VERY LIGHT
IN NATURE. OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES WERE MADE.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SET UP TO OUR EAST WITH SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DESPITE THE CLOUD
COVER, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO
STRONG WARM ADVECTION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
TO 30-40%. COUPLED WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 10-20 MPH, THERE IS AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. LIGHT ECHOES ARE EVEN NOW SHOWING UP ON
RADAR, AND WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE PREVALENT TONIGHT, MAINLY
EAST OF I-65, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
MID STATE. EVEN SO, QPF VALUES ARE VERY LIGHT. EXPECT COOLER
WEATHER TOMORROW ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS, SO TODAY'S FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WON'T CARRY OVER INTO SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY, WHICH WILL HELP PUSH A BAND OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE SO THAT LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RE-DEVELOP SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE LOW CENTER WILL HOLD TOGETHER AND ROTATE
JUST TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM ISN'T VERY DEEP, SO QPF VALUES ARE QUITE LOW.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF I-40. BUT ALL OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL EXPERIENCE COOL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE MID STATE STARTING ON MONDAY,
SO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEEL LIKE SPRINGTIME. THE NEXT ACTIVE
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AGAIN, QPF VALUES AREN'T ALL THAT GREAT.
OVERALL, THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS IS RATHER BENIGN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
TAF SITES WILL BE MAINLY VFR FOR NOW. ONCE WE GET INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD (06Z SATURDAY), CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER INTO MVFR
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS A DECREASE, THEN INCREASE,
AND THEN DECREASE AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE, BUT I'M UNCERTAIN ABOUT
THIS, AND THINK IT MAY JUST STAY IN MVFR TERRITORY ONCE IT GETS
THERE. THERE'S ALSO A SIGNAL FOR SOME SHOWERS TONIGHT AROUND KSRB
AND KCSV, BUT QUESTIONS REMAIN ON IF IT WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME
DRY AIR AND ACTUALLY PRECIPITATE, SO JUST LEFT IT AS A VCSH
MENTION FOR NOW. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY INTO SATURDAY, AND STAY
AROUND 5-10 KNOTS FOR THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 46 59 39 59 / 10 0 10 20
CLARKSVILLE 44 56 37 58 / 10 0 10 10
CROSSVILLE 45 53 34 54 / 30 0 10 20
COLUMBIA 46 58 39 58 / 10 0 20 30
COOKEVILLE 45 54 36 57 / 40 0 10 10
JAMESTOWN 44 53 32 56 / 30 10 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 46 58 40 58 / 10 0 20 30
MURFREESBORO 46 57 37 59 / 20 0 20 20
WAVERLY 43 57 38 57 / 10 0 10 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......REAGAN
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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