680
FXUS64 KOHX 080408
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1008 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1004 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) RAIN CHANCES WILL AFFECT MIDDLE
TENNESSEE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1004 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS. THE FRONT
WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS TENNESSEE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES EAST OF I-65.
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT IN NATURE. SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH
SOME SUN RETURNING DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL SPAN THE 50S
WITH A 5-10 MPH NORTH WIND. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO BUILD BACK
INTO THE SOUTH AND WEST PART OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. A COMPACT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE DEEP SOUTH ON SUNDAY. MIDDLE TENNESSEE
WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE SYSTEM. MODELS SHOW LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL BE
ALONG THE TENNESSEE/ALABAMA BORDER.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1004 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING WITH UPPER
RIDGING PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SETUP A WARM WEEK AHEAD.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S BUT BY TUESDAY, A LARGE PART OF
THE AREA WILL BE IN THE 70S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER. THE NEXT RAIN CHANCE WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
A TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. DESPITE THE WARM TEMPERATURES, IT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE A SEVERE WEATHER SETUP. IN FACT, THUNDER CHANCES LOOK LOW AT
THIS TIME. ONCE THE TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA, UPPER RIDING QUICKLY
BUILDS BACK WITH THE WARM PATTERN CONTINUING TO FINISH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
TAF SITES WILL BE MAINLY VFR FOR NOW. ONCE WE GET INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD (06Z SATURDAY), CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER INTO MVFR
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS A DECREASE, THEN INCREASE,
AND THEN DECREASE AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE, BUT I'M UNCERTAIN ABOUT
THIS, AND THINK IT MAY JUST STAY IN MVFR TERRITORY ONCE IT GETS
THERE. THERE'S ALSO A SIGNAL FOR SOME SHOWERS TONIGHT AROUND KSRB
AND KCSV, BUT QUESTIONS REMAIN ON IF IT WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME
DRY AIR AND ACTUALLY PRECIPITATE, SO JUST LEFT IT AS A VCSH
MENTION FOR NOW. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY INTO SATURDAY, AND STAY
AROUND 5-10 KNOTS FOR THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 46 58 39 60 / 20 0 10 20
CLARKSVILLE 44 55 37 59 / 10 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 45 53 34 55 / 30 0 10 20
COLUMBIA 46 58 39 58 / 10 0 20 30
COOKEVILLE 45 54 35 57 / 40 0 10 20
JAMESTOWN 43 52 33 56 / 30 10 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 46 57 39 57 / 10 0 20 30
MURFREESBORO 46 57 37 59 / 10 0 10 20
WAVERLY 43 56 38 58 / 20 0 10 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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