985
FXUS64 KOHX 081107
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
507 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 501 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) RAIN CHANCES WILL AFFECT MIDDLE
TENNESSEE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1004 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS. THE FRONT
WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS TENNESSEE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES EAST OF I-65.
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT IN NATURE. SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH
SOME SUN RETURNING DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL SPAN THE 50S
WITH A 5-10 MPH NORTH WIND. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO BUILD BACK
INTO THE SOUTH AND WEST PART OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. A COMPACT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE DEEP SOUTH ON SUNDAY. MIDDLE TENNESSEE
WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE SYSTEM. MODELS SHOW LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL BE
ALONG THE TENNESSEE/ALABAMA BORDER.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1004 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING WITH UPPER
RIDGING PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SETUP A WARM WEEK AHEAD.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S BUT BY TUESDAY, A LARGE PART OF
THE AREA WILL BE IN THE 70S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER. THE NEXT RAIN CHANCE WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
A TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. DESPITE THE WARM TEMPERATURES, IT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE A SEVERE WEATHER SETUP. IN FACT, THUNDER CHANCES LOOK LOW AT
THIS TIME. ONCE THE TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA, UPPER RIDING QUICKLY
BUILDS BACK WITH THE WARM PATTERN CONTINUING TO FINISH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 501 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
TAF SITES ARE MAINLY VFR THIS MORNING, BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLOUDS BUILDING INTO THE AREA. LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW LOW CIGS WILL
GET THIS MORNING, BUT DID INCLUDE MVFR CIGS AT CKV, CSV, AND SRB
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WHERE PROBABILITIES IN REACHING THESE LOWER
CIGS IS HIGHER. ANY MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE, GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL RELAX TO 5-10 KNOTS AS THEY BECOME NORTHERLY AFTER
12Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 58 40 60 37 / 0 10 20 20
CLARKSVILLE 55 37 59 34 / 0 0 10 10
CROSSVILLE 52 34 55 34 / 0 10 20 30
COLUMBIA 57 40 58 35 / 0 20 30 30
COOKEVILLE 53 36 57 34 / 0 0 20 20
JAMESTOWN 52 33 56 32 / 0 0 10 20
LAWRENCEBURG 57 39 57 37 / 0 20 30 40
MURFREESBORO 57 38 59 34 / 0 10 20 30
WAVERLY 56 39 58 35 / 0 10 10 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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