218
FXUS64 KOHX 081635
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1035 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1030 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-40 TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
- WARM NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS SATURDAY MORNING HAS BROUGHT COOLER
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY THIS
EVENING, WINDS WILL BE DECREASING AND MUCH LESS GUSTY. A VEIL OF
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVERHEAD, OUT AHEAD OF A COMPACT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER TX/OK.
THE COMPACT LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND DEEP
SOUTH TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL BE ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE SYSTEM WITH LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-40. THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL BE ALONG
THE TENNESSEE/ALABAMA BORDER. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN IMPACT FROM
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
FOR EARLY MARCH.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
A WARM EARLY TASTE OF SPRING IS ON THE WAY FOR NEXT WEEK. THIS
WEEKEND'S UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SET UP WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL WARM FROM
THE 60S MONDAY TO AREA-WIDE 70S BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL WARM FROM
THE 30S MONDAY MORNING TO 40S AND 50S BY MIDWEEK.
THE NEXT RAIN CHANCE WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A
FAIRLY COMPACT TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. DESPITE THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SEVERE
WEATHER SETUP. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT DEEP MOISTURE RETURN AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE
LACKING. AFTER THE SYSTEM, AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK WITH
WARM TEMPS CONTINUING TO FINISH THE WORKWEEK.
THE PATTERN LOOKS MORE AMPLIFIED AND ACTIVE GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH MODELS SHOWING A STRONG SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE PLAINS. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE, INSTABILITY,
AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, SO WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 501 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
TAF SITES ARE MAINLY VFR THIS MORNING, BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLOUDS BUILDING INTO THE AREA. LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW LOW CIGS WILL
GET THIS MORNING, BUT DID INCLUDE MVFR CIGS AT CKV, CSV, AND SRB
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WHERE PROBABILITIES IN REACHING THESE LOWER
CIGS IS HIGHER. ANY MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE, GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL RELAX TO 5-10 KNOTS AS THEY BECOME NORTHERLY AFTER
12Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 58 41 61 39 / 0 10 20 20
CLARKSVILLE 55 38 59 35 / 0 0 10 10
CROSSVILLE 52 34 56 35 / 0 10 10 20
COLUMBIA 58 41 59 37 / 10 10 30 30
COOKEVILLE 54 37 58 36 / 0 0 10 20
JAMESTOWN 52 33 57 34 / 0 0 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 58 40 59 38 / 10 20 30 40
MURFREESBORO 57 39 60 36 / 0 10 20 20
WAVERLY 56 39 59 36 / 0 10 20 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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