047
FXUS64 KOHX 090044
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
644 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 644 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-40 TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
- WARM NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 644 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST A BIT EARLIER THIS
EVENING, SO UPDATED POPS FOR THAT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT (LESS THAN 0.25") AND SOUTH OF I-40.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS SATURDAY MORNING HAS BROUGHT COOLER
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY THIS
EVENING, WINDS WILL BE DECREASING AND MUCH LESS GUSTY. A VEIL OF
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVERHEAD, OUT AHEAD OF A COMPACT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER TX/OK.
THE COMPACT LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND DEEP
SOUTH TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL BE ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE SYSTEM WITH LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-40. THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL BE ALONG
THE TENNESSEE/ALABAMA BORDER. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN IMPACT FROM
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
FOR EARLY MARCH.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
A WARM EARLY TASTE OF SPRING IS ON THE WAY FOR NEXT WEEK. THIS
WEEKEND'S UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SET UP WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL WARM FROM
THE 60S MONDAY TO AREA-WIDE 70S BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL WARM FROM
THE 30S MONDAY MORNING TO 40S AND 50S BY MIDWEEK.
THE NEXT RAIN CHANCE WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A
FAIRLY COMPACT TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. DESPITE THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SEVERE
WEATHER SETUP. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT DEEP MOISTURE RETURN AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE
LACKING. AFTER THE SYSTEM, AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK WITH
WARM TEMPS CONTINUING TO FINISH THE WORKWEEK.
THE PATTERN LOOKS MORE AMPLIFIED AND ACTIVE GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH MODELS SHOWING A STRONG SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE PLAINS. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE, INSTABILITY,
AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, SO WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 517 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. BKN TO OVC
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE PERIOD AS A SYSTEM
SKIRTS EASTWARD SOUTH OF TENNESSEE. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF
A LIGHT SHOWER AT BNA/MQY/SRB/CSV BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NNE BETWEEN 3-8 KTS BEFORE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE ENE BY 12-15Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 40 60 39 67 / 10 10 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 37 59 35 67 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 34 55 37 61 / 10 10 10 10
COLUMBIA 40 59 40 65 / 20 20 20 10
COOKEVILLE 37 58 37 62 / 10 10 10 10
JAMESTOWN 33 58 35 61 / 0 0 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 40 58 41 65 / 30 20 40 10
MURFREESBORO 39 60 39 65 / 10 10 20 10
WAVERLY 39 58 37 66 / 10 10 10 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......HOLLEY
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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