955
FXUS64 KOHX 090433
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1033 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1030 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
- SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 0.25".
- WARMING TREND ON THE WAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED INTO MID-WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 920 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MAKING ITS WAY EAST TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. THAT IS THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THESE CLOUDS AND
THE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF I-40 TONIGHT,
AND ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STAY LIGHT (LESS THAN 0.25") DUE TO LACK OF
MOISTURE IN THE AIRMASS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET, NORTH OF I-
40. SOUTH OF I-40, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONE CONCERN IS THAT THERE MAY
NOT BE EVEN A 0.10" OF ACCUMULATION FROM THESE SHOWERS, AS THE AIR
MASS IS DRY, AND THE RAIN MAY EVAPORATE IN THE DRY LAYER THAT IS
SHOWN IN TONIGHT'S 00Z SOUNDING. TEMPERATURE WISE, EXPECT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S, AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE MID 50S TO 60
DEGREES. THEN, A QUIET AND WARMING PERIOD BEGINS ON MONDAY FOR THE
WEEK.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 920 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
THE WORK WEEK STARTS WITH A QUIET PERIOD, WITH SHOWERS MOVING EAST
MONDAY MORNING, AND EXITING THE REGION THAT AFTERNOON. THIS ALLOWS A
RIDGE TO BUILD IN, WARMING OUT TEMPERATURES AND KEEPING US DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO FRIDAY WHERE WE COULD APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN
SOME AREAS. THURSDAY, MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST
AS A TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. WHILE IT
DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL RECEIVE RAIN FROM THIS, THE MOISTURE AND WIND
SHEAR IN THE GUIDANCE IS TOO LOW FOR ME TO SAY THERE COULD BE SEVERE
STORMS. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, HOWEVER, WITH
INSTABILITY PRESENT AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. THIS WON'T BE THE
LAST CHANCE FOR STORMS THIS PERIOD, WITH A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
SETTING UP INTO FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ON VARIOUS PARAMETERS LIKE MOISTURE INFLUX,
AND INSTABILITY TO SAY FOR CERTAIN HOW STRONG. STAY TUNED TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION!
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TAF PERIOD. MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM
THE NNE TO THE ENE AROUND 3-7 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 40 62 38 68 / 10 10 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 37 60 35 66 / 10 10 0 0
CROSSVILLE 34 56 37 62 / 20 10 20 0
COLUMBIA 40 60 39 66 / 30 10 20 0
COOKEVILLE 37 59 37 62 / 10 10 10 0
JAMESTOWN 33 58 34 61 / 10 10 10 0
LAWRENCEBURG 40 60 40 65 / 30 10 20 10
MURFREESBORO 39 61 38 66 / 20 10 20 0
WAVERLY 39 60 36 66 / 10 10 10 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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