499
FXUS64 KOHX 091114
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
614 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 612 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025
- SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 0.25".
- WARMING TREND ON THE WAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED INTO MID-WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 920 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MAKING ITS WAY EAST TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. THAT IS THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THESE CLOUDS AND
THE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF I-40 TONIGHT,
AND ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STAY LIGHT (LESS THAN 0.25") DUE TO LACK OF
MOISTURE IN THE AIRMASS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET, NORTH OF I-
40. SOUTH OF I-40, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONE CONCERN IS THAT THERE MAY
NOT BE EVEN A 0.10" OF ACCUMULATION FROM THESE SHOWERS, AS THE AIR
MASS IS DRY, AND THE RAIN MAY EVAPORATE IN THE DRY LAYER THAT IS
SHOWN IN TONIGHT'S 00Z SOUNDING. TEMPERATURE WISE, EXPECT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S, AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE MID 50S TO 60
DEGREES. THEN, A QUIET AND WARMING PERIOD BEGINS ON MONDAY FOR THE
WEEK.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 920 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
THE WORK WEEK STARTS WITH A QUIET PERIOD, WITH SHOWERS MOVING EAST
MONDAY MORNING, AND EXITING THE REGION THAT AFTERNOON. THIS ALLOWS A
RIDGE TO BUILD IN, WARMING OUT TEMPERATURES AND KEEPING US DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO FRIDAY WHERE WE COULD APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN
SOME AREAS. THURSDAY, MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST
AS A TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. WHILE IT
DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL RECEIVE RAIN FROM THIS, THE MOISTURE AND WIND
SHEAR IN THE GUIDANCE IS TOO LOW FOR ME TO SAY THERE COULD BE SEVERE
STORMS. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, HOWEVER, WITH
INSTABILITY PRESENT AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. THIS WON'T BE THE
LAST CHANCE FOR STORMS THIS PERIOD, WITH A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
SETTING UP INTO FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ON VARIOUS PARAMETERS LIKE MOISTURE INFLUX,
AND INSTABILITY TO SAY FOR CERTAIN HOW STRONG. STAY TUNED TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION!
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 63 39 68 42 / 10 10 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 61 36 66 42 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 57 35 62 36 / 10 10 0 0
COLUMBIA 62 37 66 40 / 10 20 0 0
COOKEVILLE 60 37 62 38 / 10 10 0 0
JAMESTOWN 59 34 61 37 / 10 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 61 39 65 39 / 20 20 10 0
MURFREESBORO 62 36 66 38 / 20 10 0 0
WAVERLY 61 37 66 42 / 10 10 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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