789
FXUS64 KOHX 130403
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1103 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1047 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
- ADVISORY LEVEL RIVER FLOODING IS STILL AROUND AT DOVER ON THE
CUMBERLAND RIVER, BUT LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL.
- MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW, WITH NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY EVENING.
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
DON MCLEAN MIGHT HAVE BEEN SINGING ABOUT VAN GOGH, BUT PERSONALLY, I
THINK HE WAS TALKING ABOUT TONIGHT'S FORECAST IN MIDDLE TN: A STARRY,
STARRY NIGHT. THAT'S WHAT WE'RE IN FOR. IN ADDITION, THE CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE FROST DEVELOPMENT BY
SUNRISE AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 30S ONCE AGAIN EAST OF I-65.
THIS WILL BE OUR LAST COOL MORNING FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS THAT KEPT US BELOW NORMAL TODAY WILL SWING
AROUND TO THE SOUTH TOMORROW AND HELP TO PUSH OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS
INTO THE LOW 70S ALMOST AREA-WIDE. IF YOU LIKE THAT, I'VE GOT
MORE FOR YOU ON MONDAY AS MANY SHOULD BREAK INTO THE LOW 80S. BOTH
DAYS WILL BE BREEZY DUE TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT, BUT
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
OUR NEXT SHOT OF RAIN ARRIVES ON THE TN RIVER LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
MONDAY. PERSISTENTLY UNIMPRESSIVE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ABOUND MONDAY
EVENING. UNDER MONDAY'S SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW, YOU'D THINK WE'D BE
ABLE TO GET BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION, BUT THIS JUST ISN'T THE CASE.
PLUS, WITH THE BULK OF THIS SYSTEM'S ENERGY OFF TO THE NORTH, WE
COULD HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE EVENING, BUT THIS LOOKS MOSTLY
LIKE RAIN -- AND IT AIN'T MUCH. CURRENT NBM PROBS SHOW THE
LIKELIHOOD OF ANYONE SEEING MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IS ABOUT 30
TO 40% AND THE LREF IS EVEN LESS, SO MONDAY NIGHT WON'T BE A SOAKER.
RAINS SHOULD EXIT THE MID-STATE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL KNOCK US BACK INTO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
AFTER GREAT WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, OUR NEXT WINDOW FOR
RAIN CHANCES IS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOLUTIONS ARE
INCONSISTENT ACROSS DETERMINISTICS AND THE NBM IS PICKING UP ON
THAT, BASICALLY REMOVING RAIN CHANCES ALL TOGETHER. THIS IS DUE TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE
TN VALLEY. IF THAT RIDGE WINS OUT, WE MIGHT END UP BEING DRY UNTIL
NEXT WEEKEND OR LATER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS TAF CYCLE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GO
LIGHT OVERNIGHT, SHIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTH AFTER 15Z WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 10-12 KTS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 41 75 59 81 / 0 0 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 41 75 61 77 / 0 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 34 67 52 77 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBIA 38 73 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 36 69 54 77 / 0 0 0 10
JAMESTOWN 34 68 53 77 / 0 0 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 38 72 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 36 72 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 41 74 61 79 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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