392
FXUS64 KOHX 130509
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1209 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1206 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
- ADVISORY LEVEL RIVER FLOODING IS STILL AROUND AT DOVER ON THE
CUMBERLAND RIVER, BUT LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL.
- MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW, WITH NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY EVENING.
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
DON MCLEAN MIGHT HAVE BEEN SINGING ABOUT VAN GOGH, BUT PERSONALLY, I
THINK HE WAS TALKING ABOUT TONIGHT'S FORECAST IN MIDDLE TN: A STARRY,
STARRY NIGHT. THAT'S WHAT WE'RE IN FOR. IN ADDITION, THE CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE FROST DEVELOPMENT BY
SUNRISE AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 30S ONCE AGAIN EAST OF I-65.
THIS WILL BE OUR LAST COOL MORNING FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS THAT KEPT US BELOW NORMAL TODAY WILL SWING
AROUND TO THE SOUTH TOMORROW AND HELP TO PUSH OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS
INTO THE LOW 70S ALMOST AREA-WIDE. IF YOU LIKE THAT, I'VE GOT
MORE FOR YOU ON MONDAY AS MANY SHOULD BREAK INTO THE LOW 80S. BOTH
DAYS WILL BE BREEZY DUE TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT, BUT
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
OUR NEXT SHOT OF RAIN ARRIVES ON THE TN RIVER LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
MONDAY. PERSISTENTLY UNIMPRESSIVE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ABOUND MONDAY
EVENING. UNDER MONDAY'S SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW, YOU'D THINK WE'D BE
ABLE TO GET BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION, BUT THIS JUST ISN'T THE CASE.
PLUS, WITH THE BULK OF THIS SYSTEM'S ENERGY OFF TO THE NORTH, WE
COULD HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE EVENING, BUT THIS LOOKS MOSTLY
LIKE RAIN -- AND IT AIN'T MUCH. CURRENT NBM PROBS SHOW THE
LIKELIHOOD OF ANYONE SEEING MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IS ABOUT 30
TO 40% AND THE LREF IS EVEN LESS, SO MONDAY NIGHT WON'T BE A SOAKER.
RAINS SHOULD EXIT THE MID-STATE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL KNOCK US BACK INTO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
AFTER GREAT WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, OUR NEXT WINDOW FOR
RAIN CHANCES IS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOLUTIONS ARE
INCONSISTENT ACROSS DETERMINISTIC AND THE NBM IS PICKING UP ON
THAT, BASICALLY REMOVING RAIN CHANCES ALL TOGETHER. THIS IS DUE TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF STATES INTO
THE TN VALLEY. IF THAT RIDGE WINS OUT, WE MIGHT END UP BEING DRY
UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND OR LATER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF CYCLE AND WHILE WINDS WILL BE
CALM OVERNIGHT, A GOOD SOUTHERLY BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
LATE SUNDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR GUSTS TO START BY 17Z AT CKV/BNA/MQY,
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
ACROSS THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 74 58 81 52 / 0 0 30 30
CLARKSVILLE 74 60 79 48 / 0 0 20 20
CROSSVILLE 68 52 77 48 / 0 0 40 50
COLUMBIA 74 58 83 52 / 0 0 20 20
COOKEVILLE 70 54 78 49 / 0 0 40 50
JAMESTOWN 69 52 78 47 / 0 0 50 60
LAWRENCEBURG 72 57 81 52 / 0 0 20 20
MURFREESBORO 73 57 83 52 / 0 0 30 40
WAVERLY 75 60 79 49 / 0 0 20 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....UNGER
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