110
FXUS64 KOHX 131613
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1113 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1113 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS LATE TOMORROW EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
IT'S A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD, WITH SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR HIGHS. NOT MUCH TO ADD TO THAT
UNTIL WE GET INTO MONDAY EVENING. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
IS MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY, BUT IT CONTINUES TO LOOK PALTRY IN
GUIDANCE. MOISTURE ADVECTION SEEMS TO BE REALLY STRUGGLING, WITH
DEWPOINTS STUCK IN THE MID 50S IN MOST MODELS CURRENTLY. QPF STILL
IS VERY INCONSISTENT IN THE GUIDANCE, BUT CLOSING IN ON A TENTH OF
AN INCH BEING THE MOST REASONABLE MAXIMA FOR OUR AREA. LOOKING AT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, SOME THUNDER COULD BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, BUT I'M JUST NOT IMPRESSED WITH THIS SETUP FOR
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER. THE LOWER LEVELS ARE DRY, LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE VERY SLOW, JUST OVERALL NOT SUPPORTIVE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
MORE BEAUTIFUL DAYS TO COME MID-WEEK FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE! ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, A RIDGE BUILDS IN AND WE GET
QUIET FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S FOR
WEDNESDAY, BUT THEN SLOWLY RISE BACK INTO THE 80S AFTER. THE RAIN
CHANCE I MENTIONED YESTERDAY DURING THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME HAS
MOVED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE NORTH, WITH POSSIBLY ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES
ON THE KY BORDER. GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON A WEEKEND DISTURBANCE,
BUT IS TOO INCONSISTENT TO GIVE US A CONCRETE IDEA OF WHAT COULD
OCCUR OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAIN. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE
WHAT SOLUTION BECOMES FAVORED AS WE GET CLOSER TEMPORALLY TO SAY
ANYTHING MORE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10KT TODAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 17KT
KICKING IN AROUND 17Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 60 82 51 66 / 0 10 30 0
CLARKSVILLE 61 78 48 64 / 0 20 20 0
CROSSVILLE 53 77 48 59 / 0 10 50 0
COLUMBIA 59 82 51 66 / 0 10 30 0
COOKEVILLE 54 78 49 60 / 0 10 40 0
JAMESTOWN 53 77 47 59 / 0 10 60 0
LAWRENCEBURG 58 82 53 65 / 0 0 30 0
MURFREESBORO 58 83 51 66 / 0 10 30 0
WAVERLY 61 79 49 64 / 0 10 20 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....13
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