597
FXUS64 KOHX 132328
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
628 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 621 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS LATE TOMORROW EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER IS
LOW FOR WIND AND HAIL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
OK, I'M SITTING HERE GOING THROUGH THE LATEST CAMS FOR TOMORROW
AND I'VE GOT ONE EYEBROW RAISED NOW. THE 18Z HRRR CAME IN STRONG.
1000+ J/KG OF SFC CAPE NORTH OF I-40 AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE MID-
STATE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THAT'S AN OUTLIER. MAYBE DOUBLE
WHAT ANY OTHER MEMBER OF THE HREF IS SHOWING AT THE SAME TIME.
HOWEVER, THE SOUNDINGS. IF WE CAN REALIZE EVEN HALF OF WHAT
INSTABILITY THE HRRR IS SUGGESTING, SOUNDINGS ARE ALMOST SIMILAR
TO WHAT WE SAW THURSDAY WHEN WE GOT ALL THOSE WIND AND HAIL
REPORTS. SO, I'M NOT SOUNDING THE ALARM, BY ANY MEANS, BUT THOSE
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER AWARE FROM 4 UNTIL
ABOUT 10 PM TOMORROW. I WOULD SAY THAT THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ISN'T ZERO, BUT IT'S LOW FOR WIND AND HAIL. TORNADO
CHANCES ARE EVEN LOWER THAN LOW AS THE HODOGRAPHS REMAIN
ELONGATED. I'LL TAKE A LOOK AT THE 00Z CAMS HERE IN A COUPLE OF
HOURS AND WE'LL SEE IF THERE'S ANY CONSISTENCY REGARDING A SEVERE
POTENTIAL. THERE COULD BE A VERY SMALL WINDOW BEFORE CAPES QUICKLY
FALL OFF FOR THE EVENING AFTER SUNSET.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
IT'S A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD, WITH SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR HIGHS. NOT MUCH TO ADD TO THAT
UNTIL WE GET INTO MONDAY EVENING. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
IS MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY, BUT IT CONTINUES TO LOOK PALTRY IN
GUIDANCE. MOISTURE ADVECTION SEEMS TO BE REALLY STRUGGLING, WITH
DEWPOINTS STUCK IN THE MID 50S IN MOST MODELS CURRENTLY. QPF STILL
IS VERY INCONSISTENT IN THE GUIDANCE, BUT CLOSING IN ON A TENTH OF
AN INCH BEING THE MOST REASONABLE MAXIMA FOR OUR AREA. LOOKING AT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, SOME THUNDER COULD BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, BUT I'M JUST NOT IMPRESSED WITH THIS SETUP FOR
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER. THE LOWER LEVELS ARE DRY, LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE VERY SLOW, JUST OVERALL NOT SUPPORTIVE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
MORE BEAUTIFUL DAYS TO COME MID-WEEK FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE! ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, A RIDGE BUILDS IN AND WE GET
QUIET FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S FOR
WEDNESDAY, BUT THEN SLOWLY RISE BACK INTO THE 80S AFTER. THE RAIN
CHANCE I MENTIONED YESTERDAY DURING THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME HAS
MOVED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE NORTH, WITH POSSIBLY ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES
ON THE KY BORDER. GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON A WEEKEND DISTURBANCE,
BUT IS TOO INCONSISTENT TO GIVE US A CONCRETE IDEA OF WHAT COULD
OCCUR OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAIN. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE
WHAT SOLUTION BECOMES FAVORED AS WE GET CLOSER TEMPORALLY TO SAY
ANYTHING MORE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS TAF CYCLE. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN
10-12 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT SSW AFTER 14Z
AND SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KTS.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AT THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD,
BRINGING LOWER CIGS AND RAIN/STORM CHANCES AFTER 15/00Z. THIS
WILL BE CAPTURED IN THE TAF NEXT FORECAST CYCLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 59 83 52 66 / 0 10 40 0
CLARKSVILLE 61 78 48 64 / 0 20 30 0
CROSSVILLE 52 78 48 59 / 0 10 60 0
COLUMBIA 59 83 52 66 / 0 10 30 0
COOKEVILLE 54 79 49 60 / 0 10 60 0
JAMESTOWN 53 78 47 59 / 0 10 60 0
LAWRENCEBURG 58 82 53 65 / 0 0 20 0
MURFREESBORO 58 83 52 66 / 0 10 40 0
WAVERLY 61 80 49 64 / 0 10 20 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......UNGER
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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