464
FXUS64 KOHX 140415
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1115 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1102 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. LOW CHANCE FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTY WINDS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 FROM 4 PM TO 10 PM.
- GUSTY NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS MONDAY, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
WIND ADVISORY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
IT'S PARTLY CLOUDY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AT FORECAST TIME AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENED ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER TODAY. GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ACTUALLY PICK UP
A LITTLE TOMORROW AHEAD OF OUR APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. THE
QUESTION IS, HOW MUCH? CURRENT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRY LOWER LEVELS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR US TO
MIX OUT WELL. THIS MEANS A COUPLE OF THINGS: SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND
GUSTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND A PRETTY GOOD LIKELIHOOD AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL OVERPERFORM COMPARED TO GUIDANCE. I WILL KEEP US UNDER
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA (GUSTS OF 40 MPH), BUT I AM GOING GO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. THE RECORD FOR APRIL 14TH IS 89
(2017) BUT WE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THAT.
YES, WE'LL FINALLY HAVE RAIN IN THE FORECAST AFTER A COUPLE OF
FANTASTIC DAYS IN MIDDLE TN. AS PART OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TN RIVER
BY 4-5PM TOMORROW. FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, WE HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING NO SEVERE POTENTIAL, BUT AFTER LOOKING AT THE LATEST
CAMS, I NOW THINK THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF A WIND AND HAIL
THREAT. IT'S NOT A WIDESPREAD THREAT, BY ANY MEANS, BUT THERE IS A
SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW AS THE FRONT ENTERS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY COULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO COUPLE WITH THE
SHEAR THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND SUSTAIN SOME UPDRAFTS. AS
SOON AS THE SUN GOES DOWN, THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE
STABLE AND WE SHOULD LOSE THAT EXTRA ENERGY FOR EVEN A LOW SEVERE
THREAT. IF THERE'S A LIMITING FACTOR THAT COULD THROW A WRENCH IN
EVERYTHING I JUST SAID, IT'S CLOUD COVER. IF WE END UP BEING TOO
CLOUDY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THIS COULD ALL BE OUT THE WINDOW. ALL
OF THAT TO SAY, IF YOU'RE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BETWEEN 4 AND 10 PM, I WOULD REMAIN WEATHER AWARE. OF
NOTE, THE TORNADO THREAT IS LOWER THAN LOW (VERY LOW?) AS
HODOGRAPHS ARE PRETTY STRETCHED OUT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT MIDDLE TN BEFORE DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY AND WHILE
SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER AND IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY, WE SHOULD BE IN
LINE FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER. AS I MENTIONED
LAST NIGHT, WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOKED LIKE OUR NEXT CHANCE
OF RAIN HERE IN THE MID-STATE, BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE AN UPPER RIDGE
IS GOING TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF
US. IF THIS PANS OUT, THAT MEANS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEKEND AND OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL NEXT
MONDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS TAF CYCLE. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN
10-12 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT SSW AFTER 14Z
AND SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KTS.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AT THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD,
BRINGING LOWER CIGS AND RAIN/STORM CHANCES AFTER 15/00Z. THIS
WILL BE CAPTURED IN THE TAF NEXT FORECAST CYCLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 62 84 52 66 / 0 10 50 0
CLARKSVILLE 64 81 48 64 / 0 30 40 0
CROSSVILLE 54 79 48 59 / 0 0 50 0
COLUMBIA 60 85 52 66 / 0 10 30 0
COOKEVILLE 56 80 49 61 / 0 10 60 0
JAMESTOWN 55 80 47 59 / 0 10 70 0
LAWRENCEBURG 59 83 53 65 / 0 0 30 0
MURFREESBORO 59 85 52 66 / 0 10 40 0
WAVERLY 62 82 50 64 / 0 20 30 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page