686
FXUS64 KOHX 141536
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1036 AM CDT MON APR 14 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1031 AM CDT MON APR 14 2025
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. LOW CHANCE FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTY WINDS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 FROM 4 PM TO 9 PM.
- GUSTY NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS TODAY TO 35 MPH, SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW WIND ADVISORY.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM CDT MON APR 14 2025
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING THROUGH THE 70S THIS MORNING WITH MOST OF
THE AREA REACHING THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. THAT FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FROM LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH JUST AFTER DARK WHERE SOUNDINGS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. THE INSTABILITY FALLS OFF AFTER DARK AS THE
MAIN FORCING ARRIVES, SO THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT DON'T QUITE LINE
UP. IN OTHER WORDS, THE SEVERE RISK IS CONDITIONAL ON STORMS BEING
ABLE TO GET GOING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE INSTABILITY IS
LOST. AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS, CONDITIONS WILL BE BREEZY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH RAINFALL
RANGING FROM 0 TO A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH. BEHIND THE FRONT,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND A
10-15 MPH WNW BREEZE. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM CDT MON APR 14 2025
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REBOUNDING TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT BUT THE ONLY IMPACT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER. BY THURSDAY, SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RAMP UP AND
UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA. BY FRIDAY, A SURFACE HIGH TRIES
TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN BECOMES AMPLIFIED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF CONUS AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL SET UP
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OUR
RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE BOUNDARY SETS
UP TO THE AREA. BY SUNDAY, THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
LOWER THE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CDT MON APR 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SSW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY,
FREQUENTLY TO 25KT. A FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE DAY WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AFTER 21Z. LOW PROBABILITY FOR
CIG/VSBY IMPACTS AND SCATTERED COVERAGE, SO JUST INCLUDING VCSH OR
VCTS IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. FROPA WILL SHIFT WINDS TO NW LATE
TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 84 52 66 43 / 10 50 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 81 48 64 41 / 30 40 0 0
CROSSVILLE 79 48 59 38 / 0 50 0 0
COLUMBIA 85 52 66 41 / 10 30 0 0
COOKEVILLE 80 49 61 39 / 10 60 0 0
JAMESTOWN 80 47 59 37 / 10 70 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 83 53 65 41 / 0 30 0 0
MURFREESBORO 85 52 66 40 / 10 40 0 0
WAVERLY 82 50 64 41 / 20 30 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....13
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