252
FXUS64 KOHX 142322
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
622 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 615 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
- SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO MIDDLE TN. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTY
WINDS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 FROM 4 PM TO 9 PM.
- GUSTY NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS TODAY TO 35 MPH, SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW WIND ADVISORY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
SHOWERS HAVE STARTED MOVING INTO MIDDLE TN AT UPDATE TIME. UPON
LOOKING AT THE ACARS SOUNDINGS FROM BNA, WE'RE GOING TO HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME GETTING THUNDER OUT OF THESE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO BECAUSE OF A CAPPING INVERSION. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REST OF THE MID-STATE. WE MAY HAVE A BETTER
SHOT AT THUNDER ONCE THESE SHOWERS REACH I-65. INSTABILITY IS
STILL PRETTY DECENT AFTER WE REACHED WELL INTO THE 80S THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE KY/TN STATE LINE WHERE DEW POINTS
REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S. MAYBE WE CAN EEK OUT A STORM OR TWO, BUT
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW TO VERY LOW FOR AREAS
NORTH OF I-40 AND ZERO SOUTH OF I-40.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM CDT MON APR 14 2025
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING THROUGH THE 70S THIS MORNING WITH MOST OF
THE AREA REACHING THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. THAT FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FROM LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH JUST AFTER DARK WHERE SOUNDINGS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. THE INSTABILITY FALLS OFF AFTER DARK AS THE
MAIN FORCING ARRIVES, SO THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT DON'T QUITE LINE
UP. IN OTHER WORDS, THE SEVERE RISK IS CONDITIONAL ON STORMS BEING
ABLE TO GET GOING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE INSTABILITY IS
LOST. AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS, CONDITIONS WILL BE BREEZY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH RAINFALL
RANGING FROM 0 TO A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH. BEHIND THE FRONT,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND A
10-15 MPH WNW BREEZE. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM CDT MON APR 14 2025
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REBOUNDING TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT BUT THE ONLY IMPACT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER. BY THURSDAY, SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RAMP UP AND
UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA. BY FRIDAY, A SURFACE HIGH TRIES
TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN BECOMES AMPLIFIED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF CONUS AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL SET UP
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OUR
RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE BOUNDARY SETS
UP TO THE AREA. BY SUNDAY, THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
LOWER THE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
LATEST ACARS SOUNDING FOR BNA VALID AT 1715Z SHOWS THAT 925 MB
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING, SO
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS NO LONGER MUCH OF A THREAT. CONDITIONS
ARE VFR ACROSS THE MID STATE, AND THEY WILL STAY THAT WAY FOR AT
LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND THAT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW TS TO THE MID STATE. WE HAVE STAGGERED THE
RELEVANT TEMPO/PROB30 GROUPS ACCORDING TO THE TIMING OF THE
FROPA; INDEED, IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. IMPROVEMENT AFTER THE WINDOW
OF ACTIVE WEATHER SHOULD BE RAPID AS WE GO RIGHT BACK TO VFR WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW AND STAYING THAT WAY TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 52 65 44 69 / 60 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 48 63 41 68 / 40 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 47 59 38 62 / 70 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 51 65 41 69 / 40 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 49 60 39 63 / 80 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 47 59 37 62 / 80 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 52 65 41 68 / 40 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 51 65 40 68 / 50 0 0 0
WAVERLY 49 63 42 68 / 40 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......UNGER
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....ROSE
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