823
FXUS64 KOHX 150443
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1143 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1031 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
- DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO MIDDLE TN TOMORROW WITH GUSTY AFTERNOON
WINDS. THIS WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SEE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
- NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINS MAY NOT BE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF DECENT THUNDERSTORMS POPPED UP ALONG A FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE MID-STATE THIS EVENING. A COUPLE OF 1/2 INCH HAIL
REPORTS WERE RECEIVED, BUT THAT'S ALL. SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT, EXITING MIDDLE TN BEFORE DAYBREAK. TOMORROW SHOULD BE A HALF-
WAY ENJOYABLE DAY AS THE SUN SHOULD RETURN AND WE'LL BE ABOUT 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN WE WERE TODAY -- BUT IT'LL BE BREEZY. GUSTS OF
25-30 MPH WILL BE COMMON THROUGH SUNSET TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHTENED ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
WEDNESDAY WILL CONSIST OF MORE SUN AND WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN TUESDAY, AND BY THURSDAY, AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
NORTHWARD INTO GULF STATES AND TN VALLEY, LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS
TO JUMP ABOVE NORMAL. THIS RIDGE SHOULD ALSO ACT TO KEEP MOST, IF
NOT ALL RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF MIDDLE TN UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY. IT WILL BE CLOSE, HOWEVER. THE WEEKEND FORECAST WILL
GREATLY REVOLVE AROUND HOW MUCH THIS RIDGE AMPLIFIES NORTHWARD. IF
IT WEAKENS AT ALL OR GETS COMPRESSED TO THE SOUTH, AREAS OF
MIDDLE TN ALONG THE KY/TN STATE LINE COULD BE DEALING WITH RAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. IN ANY EVENT, LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE 80S AGAIN BY FRIDAY, LIKELY LASTING INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF CYCLE. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM KY WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 8 HOURS.
THUNDER PROBABILITIES ARE LOW, AROUND 30% PRIMARILY AT BNA AND
MQY. CIGS AROUND 3500 FT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, PERHAPS
DROPPING TO MVFR THRESHOLDS FOR A SHORT TIME OVERNIGHT AT CSV AND
SRB. SKC CONDITIONS RETURN IN THE MORNING WITH A BRISK
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE. 12-15 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL NOT GO VERY FAR TO LIMIT WHAT LOOKS TO BE
MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO
MIDDLE TN TOMORROW AND WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST 25 TO 35 MPH,
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN TOWARDS THE SURFACE AND DROP
DEW POINTS TO THE POINT OF HAVING RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S. WILL
CONSIDER ISSUING A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 52 65 44 69 / 70 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 48 63 41 68 / 60 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 47 59 38 62 / 50 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 51 65 41 69 / 60 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 49 60 39 63 / 60 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 47 59 37 62 / 70 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 52 65 41 68 / 70 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 51 65 40 68 / 70 0 0 0
WAVERLY 49 63 42 68 / 80 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page