820
FXUS64 KOHX 151602
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1102 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1056 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND DRY
AIR.
- NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINS MAY NOT BE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY BUT WE ARE KEEPING AN EYE ON SATURDAY FOR A CONDITIONAL
STORM THREAT.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1056 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
THE COLD FRONT IS CLEAR OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING WITH BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. MUCH DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN AND WITH THE
BREEZY CONDITIONS, THERE IS AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-40 PICKED UP AROUND ONE TENTH TO
HALF AN INCH OF RAIN LAST NIGHT BUT THERE ARE LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
I-40 THAT DID NOT PICK UP MUCH, SO ANY BURNING SHOULD BE
RECONSIDERED.
WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AFTER DARK THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. TONIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THIS MEANS NO
FROSTS OR FREEZES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. LOOKING AT THE
6-10 AND 8-14 DAY CPC OUTLOOKS, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED, SO MAYBE IT IS TIME TO START THINKING ABOUT PUTTING OUT
THE GARDEN? TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS STARTING TO BUILD IN NEAR SUNSET.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1056 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
SHORTWAVE WILL BE RIDING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ON
THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE OF A
LIGHT SHOWER NORTH OF I-40. THE RIDGING WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RAMPING UP
WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER OUR AREA ON FRIDAY, A TROUGH WILL DIG
INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTING UP NEAR
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL DETERMINE THE PLACEMENT OF THAT FRONT AND OUR
RAIN CHANCES. IF THE RIDGE HOLDS STRONG, THE AREA MAY REMAIN DRY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IF IT IS NOT AS STRONG AND THE FRONT IS
CLOSER TO THE AREA, WE'LL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE AMPLE
ON SATURDAY, SO IF WE GET SOME STORMS FIRING DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE THREAT. BUT AGAIN, THIS
WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON THE FRONTAL PLACEMENT.
THE FRONT WILL BE LIFTED NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE EJECTS
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH OUR AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THAT SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BRING THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OF THE
FORECAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES WILL CLEAR
THIS MORNING AND WNW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KTS AFTER 14Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW 5 KTS AFTER 16/00Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 66 44 68 48 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 63 41 68 47 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 58 37 62 40 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 65 41 69 47 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 60 38 63 42 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 58 37 62 40 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 64 41 68 47 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 65 40 69 45 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 63 41 68 49 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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