766
FXUS64 KOHX 161113
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
613 AM CDT WED APR 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 611 AM CDT WED APR 16 2025
- NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINS MAY NOT BE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY BUT WE ARE KEEPING AN EYE ON SATURDAY FOR A CONDITIONAL
STORM THREAT.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
HIGH PRESSURE IS DOMINATING THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES
AND CALMING WINDS WILL LEAD TO UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S BY TOMORROW
MORNING. THEN? MORE SUN TOMORROW AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY.
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS, MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE TRYING TO
DECIDE WHAT TO DO WITH THIS LATE WEEK RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THAT JUST BEFORE IT REALLY
EXERTS ITSELF ON MIDDLE TN, WE'RE GOING TO GET SOME LIGHT RAIN IN
HERE ON THURSDAY AS A QUICK IMPULSE RIDES OVER THE NORTH EDGE OF THE
RIDGE. I DON'T THINK EVERYONE SEES RAIN AND REALLY, IT SHOULD BE
INCONSEQUENTIAL, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN. BEST CHANCES ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-40.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
ONCE WE GET THAT THROUGH HERE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THE RIDGE WILL
START TO BE EVIDENT WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR OUR RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. MODELS AREN'T IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ABOUT HOW THE RIDGE WILL HOLD UP. THERE WAS SOME
INDICATION EARLIER TODAY THAT THE RIDGE MAY BREAK DOWN JUST ENOUGH
TO PRESENT A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT ON SATURDAY FOR WESTERN
MIDDLE TN COUNTIES. NOW? I'M NOT SO SURE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THERE'S
PLENTY OF DETAILS THAT NEED TO BE WORKED OUT FOR THIS WEEKEND.
WHETHER WE GET STORMS SATURDAY OR NOT, THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE EXTENDED THAT WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ENTER THE PICTURE LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE RIDGE DOES BREAK DOWN AND OUR NEXT
WIDESPREAD RAINMAKER ENTERS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUB-
PAR FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH POOR LAPSE RATES AND MEAGER CAPE ON
SUNDAY, SO I'M NOT CONCERNED WITH IT AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER, WE'LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY.
AFTER SUNDAY'S RAINS, LOOKS FOR ANOTHER TRANQUIL PERIOD WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT WED APR 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUILDING IN DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER 8 KNOTS TODAY
SHIFTING LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 70 50 76 60 / 0 10 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 69 49 74 60 / 0 10 10 0
CROSSVILLE 63 41 68 53 / 0 0 10 0
COLUMBIA 70 48 78 59 / 0 10 0 0
COOKEVILLE 65 45 70 57 / 0 0 10 0
JAMESTOWN 63 41 68 53 / 0 0 20 0
LAWRENCEBURG 69 48 76 59 / 0 10 0 0
MURFREESBORO 70 46 76 60 / 0 10 10 0
WAVERLY 70 51 76 61 / 0 20 10 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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