200
FXUS64 KOHX 161756 CCA
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1214 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1213 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025
- NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINS MAY NOT BE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY BUT WE ARE KEEPING AN EYE ON SATURDAY FOR A CONDITIONAL
STORM THREAT.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT WED APR 16 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, SO WE
ARE ENJOYING CONTINUED ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER
WINDS THAN YESTERDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
REMAINS QUITE DRY. PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE 1530Z ACARS
SOUNDING AT BNA COMES IN AT 0.287", FOR A PWAT+ VALUE OF 43
(OBSERVED PWAT IS 43% OF THE DAILY MEAN VALUE). CURRENT DEWPOINTS
ARE LARGELY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN ON TUESDAY, AND TOMORROW'S WILL
BE EVEN WARMER, DESPITE THE ADDITION OF A FEW MORE CLOUDS. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE MID STATE ON THURSDAY. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF US, BUT WE CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO NORTH OF I-40.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT WED APR 16 2025
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ON FRIDAY, AND HERE'S WHERE
READINGS WILL LEVEL OFF FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. HIGHS AND LOWS
GOING FORWARD WILL STAY REMARKABLY EVEN AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE
BOUNDARY STALLS OUT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THE NBM GIVES US BETTER
PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTION SUNDAY, SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
AS THE BOUNDARY MAKES SLOW PROGRESS. WHILE THE SPC HINTS AT SOME
SEVERE STORM RISK TO THE IMMEDIATE W/NW OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE MID
STATE REMAINS VERY LOW. AND SO DO QPF VALUES. THE 13Z NBM GIVES
BNA AN 83% PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM SUNDAY MORNING
UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY (48-HR QPF), BUT ONLY A 39% OF 1/2" OR MORE.
SO WHILE WE FIND OURSELVES TRANSITIONING TO A WET PATTERN BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEK, THERE DOESN'T LOOK TO BE ANY SORT OF "ROLLER-
COASTER" OF TEMPERATURE SWINGS. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD, BOTH THE
6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUILDING IN DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON SHIFTING LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 50 78 61 84 / 10 10 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 49 76 61 82 / 10 20 0 0
CROSSVILLE 41 69 54 78 / 0 10 0 0
COLUMBIA 48 78 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 45 70 58 80 / 0 10 0 0
JAMESTOWN 41 68 54 79 / 0 20 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 48 77 59 82 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 46 77 60 83 / 0 10 0 0
WAVERLY 51 77 62 81 / 10 10 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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