374
FXUS64 KOHX 170406
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1106 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1102 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025
- NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINS MAY NOT BE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY BUT WE ARE KEEPING AN EYE ON SATURDAY FOR A CONDITIONAL
STORM THREAT.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025
WOW, DID IT GET DRY TODAY. A 45 DEGREE DEW POINT DEPRESSION AT BNA
AT 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AROUND, IT
REALLY TURNED OUT TO BE A FANTASTIC DAY. CALM WINDS TONIGHT WITH
THOSE SAME FEW CLOUDS ROAMING AROUND WILL COOL THINGS OFF AGAIN, BUT
IT SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER TOMORROW MORNING THAN WHAT WE
SAW THIS MORNING. I TALKED LAST NIGHT ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN
TOMORROW. YEAH, NO. EVEN WITH BOUNDARY WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO THE
SOUTH TOMORROW, I DON'T THINK THERE'S ENOUGH OF A MOISTURE PUSH TO
ALLOW FOR ANY RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND. SO, LOOK FOR PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER AS THE RIDGE WE'VE
BEEN TALKING ABOUT STARTS TO EXERT ITSELF ON THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025
AAAH, THE RIDGE. YES, IT'S GOING TO BE WARM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. I
TOOK A LOOK AT RECORDS AND WE SHOULD FALL SHORT OF THEM (88 BOTH
DAYS), BUT SATURDAY COULD BE CLOSE. ESPECIALLY SINCE THE NBM DOESN'T
DO WELL WITH THE MORE EXTREME TEMPERATURES. THE BIGGER QUESTION FOR
THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE RIDGE'S INFLUENCE OVER OUR RAIN CHANCES. I
STILL THINK THE RIDGE WINS OUT ON SATURDAY. MY REASONING FOR THIS:
THE GFS IS HISTORICALLY PROGRESSIVE WITH WEATHER SYSTEMS. IT WANTS
TO PUSH SYSTEMS FURTHER EAST, QUICKER. THE EURO HAS BEEN PERSISTENT
IN HOLDING THE RAIN OFF UNTIL SUNDAY. FOR NOW, THE NBM IS
MAINTAINING A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
SATURDAY IN OUR NORTHWEST QUADRANT, BUT IT'S PROBABLY CLOSER TO LOW
THAN IT IS TO MEDIUM. AS FAR AS SUNDAY, I'M STILL NOT IMPRESSED WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THEY LOOK A TICK BETTER THAN THEY DID LAST NIGHT
AS FAR AS INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES, BUT BOTH ARE STILL ON THE LOW
SIDE. HOWEVER, WITH THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE SHEAR THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE, ANY FURTHER IMPROVEMENT OF SOUNDINGS WILL PUSH US
TOWARDS A MORE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BEYOND SUNDAY, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL STICK AROUND FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS PROGGED TO ENTER
THE AREA MID-WEEK AND IT COULD KICK OFF AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR US
AGAIN. THIS WOULD COINCIDE WITH CPC'S HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE 6 TO 10 DAY WINDOW. FOR NOW, ENJOY THIS GREAT
WEATHER AND CHECK BACK HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND REGARDING STORM
POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 559 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE BY 18Z WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS 10-12 KTS
AND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 49 77 60 84 / 0 10 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 49 76 61 82 / 10 10 0 10
CROSSVILLE 41 70 55 79 / 0 10 0 0
COLUMBIA 48 78 60 84 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 44 72 58 79 / 0 10 0 0
JAMESTOWN 41 69 55 80 / 0 10 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 48 77 60 82 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 46 77 60 84 / 0 10 0 0
WAVERLY 51 77 61 82 / 10 10 0 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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