578
FXUS64 KOHX 171126
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
626 AM CDT THU APR 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 624 AM CDT THU APR 17 2025
- NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINS MAY NOT BE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY BUT WE ARE KEEPING AN EYE ON SATURDAY FOR A CONDITIONAL
STORM THREAT.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025
WOW, DID IT GET DRY TODAY. A 45 DEGREE DEW POINT DEPRESSION AT BNA
AT 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AROUND, IT
REALLY TURNED OUT TO BE A FANTASTIC DAY. CALM WINDS TONIGHT WITH
THOSE SAME FEW CLOUDS ROAMING AROUND WILL COOL THINGS OFF AGAIN, BUT
IT SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER TOMORROW MORNING THAN WHAT WE
SAW THIS MORNING. I TALKED LAST NIGHT ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN
TOMORROW. YEAH, NO. EVEN WITH BOUNDARY WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO THE
SOUTH TOMORROW, I DON'T THINK THERE'S ENOUGH OF A MOISTURE PUSH TO
ALLOW FOR ANY RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND. SO, LOOK FOR PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER AS THE RIDGE WE'VE
BEEN TALKING ABOUT STARTS TO EXERT ITSELF ON THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025
AAAH, THE RIDGE. YES, IT'S GOING TO BE WARM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. I
TOOK A LOOK AT RECORDS AND WE SHOULD FALL SHORT OF THEM (88 BOTH
DAYS), BUT SATURDAY COULD BE CLOSE. ESPECIALLY SINCE THE NBM DOESN'T
DO WELL WITH THE MORE EXTREME TEMPERATURES. THE BIGGER QUESTION FOR
THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE RIDGE'S INFLUENCE OVER OUR RAIN CHANCES. I
STILL THINK THE RIDGE WINS OUT ON SATURDAY. MY REASONING FOR THIS:
THE GFS IS HISTORICALLY PROGRESSIVE WITH WEATHER SYSTEMS. IT WANTS
TO PUSH SYSTEMS FURTHER EAST, QUICKER. THE EURO HAS BEEN PERSISTENT
IN HOLDING THE RAIN OFF UNTIL SUNDAY. FOR NOW, THE NBM IS
MAINTAINING A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
SATURDAY IN OUR NORTHWEST QUADRANT, BUT IT'S PROBABLY CLOSER TO LOW
THAN IT IS TO MEDIUM. AS FAR AS SUNDAY, I'M STILL NOT IMPRESSED WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THEY LOOK A TICK BETTER THAN THEY DID LAST NIGHT
AS FAR AS INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES, BUT BOTH ARE STILL ON THE LOW
SIDE. HOWEVER, WITH THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE SHEAR THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE, ANY FURTHER IMPROVEMENT OF SOUNDINGS WILL PUSH US
TOWARDS A MORE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BEYOND SUNDAY, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL STICK AROUND FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS PROGGED TO ENTER
THE AREA MID-WEEK AND IT COULD KICK OFF AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR US
AGAIN. THIS WOULD COINCIDE WITH CPC'S HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE 6 TO 10 DAY WINDOW. FOR NOW, ENJOY THIS GREAT
WEATHER AND CHECK BACK HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND REGARDING STORM
POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT THU APR 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL WORK OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME CLEARING FOR A SHORT TIME IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS BY 18Z. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WILL DEVELOP FOR THE EASTERN TERMINALS AFTER 03Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 78 61 84 65 / 10 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 76 61 82 66 / 10 0 10 10
CROSSVILLE 71 55 79 60 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 78 60 84 65 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 72 58 79 63 / 10 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 71 55 80 62 / 10 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 77 60 82 65 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 78 60 84 65 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 77 62 82 66 / 10 0 10 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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