699
FXUS64 KOHX 172319
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
619 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 613 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
- HIGHS WARM BACK INTO THE 70S AND 80S
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW
- WARM NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT THU APR 17 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILT OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY
WITH A SURFACE HIGH SITTING TO OUR NORTHEAST. A SHORT WAVE IS
SPINNING AROUND THE APEX OF THE RIDGE AND IS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
TO OUR NORTHWEST AND MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO OUR AREA.
THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHWEST AND
WE WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY, THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL WARM THINGS UP
INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 THIS AFTERNOON. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVE BACK IN THIS EVENING AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST
SLOWLY START TO PUSH EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID
50S TO MID 60S.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND WILL BRING AN INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO TO THE REGION AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. WIND GUSTS
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE MID AFTERNOON WILL BE BETWEEN
20-30 MPH. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH THEM PUSHING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT THU APR 17 2025
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES IT WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT TO OUR NORTH
SATURDAY AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA AND WE LOOK TO
HAVE A STRONG CAP IN PLACE WITH SOME MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY. THIS
WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE WEEKEND DRY AND WARM, HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST WILL
FINALLY LIFT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE SUNDAY
EVENING AND INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. BY THE
TIME THE FRONT MAKES IT TO OUR AREAS INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED,
GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG. THE CAPE PROFILES WILL ALSO BE TALL
AND SKINNY, THIS WOULD NOT SUPPORT ROBUST UPDRAFTS. SEVERE WEATHER
LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE MID STATE
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN
CAPE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED ON MONDAY ALONG WITH SIMILAR PROFILES.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS
UNLIKELY.
SHORT WAVE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. COOLING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE LIMITED WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. TROUGHING
OVER THE WEST MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BRING WEAK SHORT WAVES OVER
OUR AREA AND SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOONS. HIGHS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE
80S BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS TAF CYCLE. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AT 2KFT RAMPING UP AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
MIX BACK DOWN IN THE MORNING, LEADING TO SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN
12-16 KTS AND GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 61 85 65 86 / 0 0 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 61 84 65 84 / 0 0 10 20
CROSSVILLE 55 78 60 82 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 60 84 64 85 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 58 80 63 82 / 0 0 0 10
JAMESTOWN 55 80 62 83 / 0 0 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 60 82 64 84 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 61 84 65 87 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 62 83 65 84 / 0 0 0 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MUELLER
LONG TERM....MUELLER
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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