054
FXUS64 KOHX 180410
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1110 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1027 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
- CALM WEEKEND AHEAD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO 80S.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE SE US, HELPING TO KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS QUIET
OVER OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID-50S TO LOW-60S WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
IN FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TOWARDS THE EAST TOMORROW
IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS, RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH. THESE STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALSO LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY REACHING INTO THE UPPER-70S TO MID-80S.
BY SATURDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER, THIS FRONT LOOKS TO STALL
JUST TO OUR NORTH WHICH IN TURN KEEPS MOST OF OUR AREA DRY ON
SATURDAY. THERE'S ONLY A VERY LOW CHANCE (10-20%) OF A
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, IT
SHOULD BE A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 80S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
BY SUNDAY, A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE OK AREA WHICH HELPS
FINALLY PUSH THE STALLED COLD FRONT EASTWARD. SUNDAY SHOULD STILL
BE A VERY NICE DAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE 80S. BUT BY SUNDAY EVENING, THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST, AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
MIDDLE TN THROUGH MONDAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS
TO BE VERY LOW THANKS TO LIMITED INSTABILITY OF CAPE VALUES AROUND
250 J/KG. CERTAINLY ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
FORTUNATELY, SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL UNLIKELY.
BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WILL COOL
INTO THE 70S, BUT WILL BE QUICK TO REBOUND BY MID-WEEK. DRIER
WEATHER WILL ALSO BE FAVORED AGAIN BY TUESDAY, BUT THE OVERALL
PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED AGAIN MID-WEEK WITH MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES
(30-50%) ENTERING THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON STARTING WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS TAF CYCLE. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AT 2KFT RAMPING UP AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
MIX BACK DOWN IN THE MORNING, LEADING TO SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN
12-16 KTS AND GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 61 85 65 86 / 0 0 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 61 84 65 84 / 0 0 10 20
CROSSVILLE 55 79 61 82 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 60 84 64 85 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 58 80 63 82 / 0 0 0 10
JAMESTOWN 55 80 62 83 / 0 0 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 60 82 64 84 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 61 84 65 87 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 62 83 66 84 / 0 0 0 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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