184
FXUS64 KOHX 191047
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
547 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 541 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
- CALM WEEKEND, BUT A COUPLE OF HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE IN
JEOPARDY AT BNA TODAY AND TOMORROW.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW.
- WARM NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 541 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
AFTER LOOKING THINGS OVER, INCLUDING US REACHING 85 YESTERDAY, I
HAVE PUSHED OUR AFTERNOON HIGH AT BNA TODAY UP TO TYING THE
RECORD FOR APRIL 19TH -- 88 SET IN 2006. OF COURSE, IF THIS PANS
OUT THE WAY I THINK IT WILL, THAT MEANS TOMORROW'S RECORD OF 87 IN
2002 WILL ALSO BE IN JEOPARDY. I'LL MAKE THAT ADJUSTMENT WITH THE
FULL FORECAST PACKAGE LATER THIS MORNING, IF THINGS ARE ON TRACK.
OTHERWISE, SUN AND SOME CLOUDS AND A GREAT DAY IS ON TAP!
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
ALL IS CALM THIS EVENING ACROSS MIDDLE TN. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WHILE AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE IS JUST OFF TO OUR EAST. THIS HAS STEERED A 35-45 KNOT
850MB JET OVER MIDDLE TN WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR GUSTY WINDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS HAVE LESSENED
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING, STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL
KEEP WINDS BREEZY AT 10-15 MPH OVERNIGHT.
A MOSTLY CALM WEEKEND IS STILL IN STORE. THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT
LAKES LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ON SATURDAY, HOWEVER, THIS
FRONT STALLS JUST TO THE NORTH OF TN WHERE IT WILL STAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS KEEPS THE AREA WARM AND DRY BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY, AN UPPER-LOW DEEPENS AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ONTO THE GREAT PLAINS ALONG WITH A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE OK AREA. THIS WILL FINALLY PUSH A
COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS MIDDLE TN SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
WITH THIS FRONT, HIGH CHANCES (60-80%) FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REENTER THE FORECAST. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL VERY LOW. CAPE VALUES THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY INCREASE TO AROUND 300-500 J/KG, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR 40 KNOTS
COULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED STORMS, HOWEVER,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE WITH
LONG, SKINNY CAPE PROFILES NOT BEING GOOD FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS.
STRONGER, PULSE-LIKE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS, BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
IS STILL VERY LOW.
A RELATIVE COOLDOWN ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY, BUT A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN PRESENTS ITSELF BY MID-
WEEK WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRINGING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE
EACH AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY, WITH FORECAST BULK SHEAR VALUES LESS
THAN 20 KNOTS, THE CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED OR SEVERE STORMS IS STILL
LOW WITH ANY ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
LLWS CONTINUES AROUND 2000FT BUT WILL DIMINISH AFTER 09Z SATURDAY.
SSW SURFACE WINDS ALSO REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY THEN EASE
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. VFR CIGS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 88 65 87 66 / 0 0 0 20
CLARKSVILLE 85 64 85 65 / 10 10 10 40
CROSSVILLE 84 61 82 62 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 87 65 86 66 / 0 0 0 10
COOKEVILLE 84 64 83 65 / 0 0 0 10
JAMESTOWN 85 61 83 63 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 86 65 85 66 / 0 0 0 10
MURFREESBORO 88 65 87 67 / 0 0 0 10
WAVERLY 85 65 84 64 / 0 10 10 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......UNGER
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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