239
FXUS64 KOHX 031147
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
647 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 626 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY, WITH A PERIOD OF
WARMING RETURNING MID NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AFTER AN
ACTIVE AFTERNOON. THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS PRETTY WORKED OVER WITH
MEAGER INSTABILITY THANKS TO POOR LAPSE RATES. HIGH RES MODELS
CONTINUE THE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLOWLY APPROACHES THE
AREA AS IT CUTS OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A
COUPLE STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS SOME INSTABILITY BUILDS IN. THE THREAT WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAIN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND THE 90TH
PERCENTILE. OVERALL, THE ACTIVITY WILL BE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING IN THE
NORTHWEST. SOME CAMS SHOW THE POTENTIAL OF TRAINING IN THAT AREA
WITH THE HREF SHOWING ABOUT A 10% CHANCE OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING 2".
THIS COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IF IT PANS OUT. THE
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEING MAINLY DRY.
THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN CHANCES AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY, BUT THE COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE RELATIVE TO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF RAIN AND CLOUDS AND THE
VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
WE WILL START THE WORK WEEK WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES BUT WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND POPS AS THE
UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET INTO
THE 70S AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVING IN.
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED AS A LARGE UPPER LOW
SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN CONUS WITH DISTURBANCES
AHEAD OF IT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
A MIXED VARIETY OF FLIGHT IMPACTS EXTEND ACROSS MIDDLE TN THIS
MORNING. CKV REMAINS EMBEDDED IN SHRA ACTIVITY WITH PERIODIC
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS - THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING. BNA AND MQY ARE CURRENTLY STUCK BETWEEN ACTIVITY, SO I
DELAYED THE ONSET OF IFR CIGS FOR A COUPLE HOURS FROM THE PREVIOUS
TAFS. WINDS AT BNA REMAIN S TO SW THIS MORNING AT 5-10 KTS, CKV
HAS HAD FROPA, SO WINDS ARE NOW NW.
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR BNA AND MQY WILL BE CONVECTION LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT. A BATCH OF SHRA IS LIKELY
WITH ISOLATED TS POTENTIAL. THOUGH I DON'T HAVE TS MENTIONED IN
THE TAF CURRENTLY, IT'S A POSSIBILITY MAINLY 16-18Z. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT ARE
FORECAST TO DROP BACK INTO IFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 69 52 64 49 / 90 20 60 10
CLARKSVILLE 68 51 63 47 / 80 40 50 10
CROSSVILLE 66 47 59 43 / 100 40 60 10
COLUMBIA 70 49 63 46 / 90 10 40 0
COOKEVILLE 66 49 59 46 / 100 30 70 10
JAMESTOWN 66 47 61 44 / 100 40 70 10
LAWRENCEBURG 69 48 63 45 / 90 10 40 0
MURFREESBORO 69 49 63 46 / 90 20 50 10
WAVERLY 69 49 61 46 / 80 30 40 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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