685
FXUS64 KOHX 031621
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1121 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1121 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
- MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, WITH A MARGINAL THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 1/5) FOR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. GUSTY
WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE WORK WEEK, WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER TAGGING ALONG.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. EVEN THOUGH THE AIR
MASS IS PRETTY MOIST AND HUMID, WE HAVE SEEN SO MANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS PRETTY
TURNED OVER. DESPITE THIS, SOME STRONGER OR SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, LEADING TO A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 1/5) FOR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THE
THREAT TODAY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED, WITH LAPSE RATES REACHING MAYBE
6.5C/KM, AND SHEAR BEING AROUND 10 KNOTS. AFTER THE ISOLATED THREAT
TODAY, SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AS WELL WITH
THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY, BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS MOMENT. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
AS THE UPPER LEVEL OMEGA BLOCK BREAKS DOWN EARLY - MID WEEK THIS
WEEK, WEAK RIDGING WILL INCREASE OUR TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL VALUES. WITH THE WESTERN LOW THAT WAS PART OF THAT OMEGA
BLOCK DRIFTING EAST, EXPECT SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER LATER IN THE WEEK
THANKS TO SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW. AT THIS TIME, WE'RE NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER, BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
STILL BE A POSSIBILITY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
A MIXED VARIETY OF FLIGHT IMPACTS EXTEND ACROSS MIDDLE TN THIS
MORNING. CKV REMAINS EMBEDDED IN SHRA ACTIVITY WITH PERIODIC
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS - THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING. BNA AND MQY ARE CURRENTLY STUCK BETWEEN ACTIVITY, SO I
DELAYED THE ONSET OF IFR CIGS FOR A COUPLE HOURS FROM THE PREVIOUS
TAFS. WINDS AT BNA REMAIN S TO SW THIS MORNING AT 5-10 KTS, CKV
HAS HAD FROPA, SO WINDS ARE NOW NW.
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR BNA AND MQY WILL BE CONVECTION LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT. A BATCH OF SHRA IS LIKELY
WITH ISOLATED TS POTENTIAL. THOUGH I DON'T HAVE TS MENTIONED IN
THE TAF CURRENTLY, IT'S A POSSIBILITY MAINLY 16-18Z. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT ARE
FORECAST TO DROP BACK INTO IFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 69 52 63 49 / 90 30 60 30
CLARKSVILLE 68 51 60 48 / 90 40 50 20
CROSSVILLE 66 47 60 44 / 100 40 70 30
COLUMBIA 70 48 63 47 / 90 10 40 10
COOKEVILLE 66 49 60 46 / 100 30 70 40
JAMESTOWN 66 47 61 45 / 100 50 70 50
LAWRENCEBURG 69 48 62 46 / 90 10 40 10
MURFREESBORO 69 48 63 48 / 100 20 50 20
WAVERLY 69 49 60 47 / 90 30 40 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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