942
FXUS64 KOHX 032324
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
624 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 621 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
- MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WITH COVERAGE
DECREASING OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE WORK WEEK, WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER TAGGING ALONG.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
STRATIFORM RAIN IS MOVING OFF THE PLATEAU AT THIS HOUR WITH A COUPLE
OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING MOVING ACROSS I-65
AND INTO NORTHWEST MIDDLE TN. THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED CAPE FOR
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO TAP INTO BUT THERE IS BETWEEN 500-
1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE WEST OF I-65 WHERE WE ARE SEEING THE LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY. I EXPECT THE STORMS TO BEHAVE BUT JUST BE AWARE OF THE
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IF YOU NEED TO BE OUTSIDE THIS
EVENING. THE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 500 J/KG AFTER
01-02Z WITH THE COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY DECREASING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DRIZZLE AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH MORE ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW. IT WILL BE COOL ON SUNDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. EVEN THOUGH THE AIR
MASS IS PRETTY MOIST AND HUMID, WE HAVE SEEN SO MANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS PRETTY
TURNED OVER. DESPITE THIS, SOME STRONGER OR SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, LEADING TO A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 1/5) FOR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THE
THREAT TODAY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED, WITH LAPSE RATES REACHING MAYBE
6.5C/KM, AND SHEAR BEING AROUND 10 KNOTS. AFTER THE ISOLATED THREAT
TODAY, SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AS WELL WITH
THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY, BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS MOMENT. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
AS THE UPPER LEVEL OMEGA BLOCK BREAKS DOWN EARLY - MID WEEK THIS
WEEK, WEAK RIDGING WILL INCREASE OUR TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL VALUES. WITH THE WESTERN LOW THAT WAS PART OF THAT OMEGA
BLOCK DRIFTING EAST, EXPECT SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER LATER IN THE WEEK
THANKS TO SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW. AT THIS TIME, WE'RE NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER, BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
STILL BE A POSSIBILITY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS MIDDLE TN, BUT WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF BY 06Z. PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD
THOUGH IS GOING TO BE PERSISTENT MVFR TO IFR CIGS. WHILE TERMINALS
ARE IMPROVING TO VFR BEHIND SHOWERS, ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL MEAN
FOR LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS STARTING AROUND 06Z. CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
TO MVFR BY MID-DAY SUNDAY, BUT A RETURN TO VFR IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 52 60 48 68 / 30 60 20 30
CLARKSVILLE 51 59 48 66 / 50 50 30 20
CROSSVILLE 47 59 43 62 / 50 70 20 40
COLUMBIA 49 62 46 69 / 20 50 20 20
COOKEVILLE 49 58 46 62 / 30 80 20 40
JAMESTOWN 47 60 44 61 / 50 70 30 50
LAWRENCEBURG 48 62 46 67 / 20 40 10 10
MURFREESBORO 49 61 46 67 / 20 50 20 20
WAVERLY 49 60 46 67 / 40 40 10 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......REAGAN
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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