355
FXUS64 KOHX 040342
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1042 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1036 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON SUNDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF A STORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM STARTING TUESDAY, WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER TAGGING ALONG.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
THE SHOWER COVERAGE HAS DECREASED OVER THE LAST 2 HOURS WITH GLM
SHOWING NO ACTIVITY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WITH FOG DEVELOPING IN THE CLEAR AREAS. WE'LL
HAVE TO MONITOR THE VISIBILITY TRENDS FOR THE NEED OF A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS THE CUTOFF UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO WOBBLE OVER THE AREA. MORE SHOWERS WILL PIVOT
AROUND THE LOW AND MOVE IN CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. CAMS HAVE ABOUT 200-
500 J/KG OF MUCAPE DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN FOURTH OF THE AREA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER. I DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE. WITH
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY GET INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY, THE UPPER
LOW WILL HAVE ONLY MADE IT INTO KENTUCKY WHICH MEANS THE COOL
WEATHER AND SOME RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER. THE COVERAGE WILL BE
LOWER THAN SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
BY TUESDAY THE MEANDERING LOW WILL FINALLY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH
TO LEAVE US ALONE. SUN WILL RETURN AND TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT
BACK INTO THE 70S. THE BREAK FROM THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE LOBE OF ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL
EJECT A WAVE LATE TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THAT WAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY
BUT BY THAT TIME, THE LARGE LOBE OF ENERGY WILL BE KNOCKING ON OUR
DOORSTEP IN THE FORM OF ANOTHER MEANDERING CUTOFF LOW. THIS WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS MIDDLE TN, BUT WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF BY 06Z. PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD
THOUGH IS GOING TO BE PERSISTENT MVFR TO IFR CIGS. WHILE TERMINALS
ARE IMPROVING TO VFR BEHIND SHOWERS, ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL MEAN
FOR LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS STARTING AROUND 06Z. CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
TO MVFR BY MID-DAY SUNDAY, BUT A RETURN TO VFR IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 69 52 60 48 / 90 30 60 20
CLARKSVILLE 68 51 59 48 / 90 50 50 30
CROSSVILLE 66 47 59 43 / 100 50 70 20
COLUMBIA 70 49 62 46 / 90 20 50 20
COOKEVILLE 66 49 58 46 / 100 30 80 20
JAMESTOWN 66 47 60 44 / 100 50 70 30
LAWRENCEBURG 69 48 62 46 / 90 20 40 10
MURFREESBORO 69 49 61 46 / 90 20 50 20
WAVERLY 69 49 60 46 / 90 40 40 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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